Alliant Energy Corporation

LNT · NASDAQ · USD

Can Alliant turn its contracted data center pipeline into steady rate base growth without diluting shareholders or building generation ahead of demand?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Bull case

  • Contracted data center demand

    The bull case is that signed hyperscale contracts turn a slow-growth utility into one whose demand rises faster than the underlying economy.

  • Regulated capital investment

    Growth comes from regulated spending on generation, storage and wires, so earnings rise as the approved asset base grows rather than from market prices.

  • Supportive state regulators

    Iowa's rate framework and Wisconsin's settlement let the company earn its allowed return while holding base rates flat, which the bull side expects to continue.

Bear case

  • Load ramp timing

    The bear case is that most of the contracted load arrives late in the decade, so sales growth stays close to the general economy for several more years.

  • Local siting opposition

    Data centers need township zoning and local consent, and a contracted project already moved to another state, which the bear side expects to keep happening.

  • Equity funding needs

    Paying for the build requires selling stock and borrowing, which spreads profit over more shares and leaves free cash flow negative while spending runs ahead.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Signed data center contracts drive growth, while the load ramp timing and local siting remain uncertain.

Bull · 2

  • Five signed data center agreements anchor the demand outlook

    Contracted load gives Alliant a defined set of investments to earn a return on, and management expects the five agreements to raise peak demand about 60% by 2031.

    Q2 FY2026 call

  • Management moves from a minimum target to specific annual guidance

    A year ago the long-term target was 7% plus with deliberate flexibility; management now says the third quarter update will give a range or specific annual targets.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Most data center load does not reach the system until 2027 or later

    Second quarter 2026 revenue grew only 1.0% year over year, so the earnings acceleration the plan promises depends on ramp dates that are still ahead.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Local zoning pushed one contracted data center to another state

    QTS moved its planned Wisconsin campus to Iowa, showing that township and county decisions can delay contracted load and the investments sized to serve it.

    Q4 FY2025 call

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Earnings grow with the capital plan, while construction spending leaves free cash flow negative.

Bull · 2

  • Rate base grows about 12% a year through 2029

    For a regulated utility earnings follow the asset base it is allowed to earn on, and Alliant has beaten analyst estimates in seven of the last eight quarters.

    Q3 FY2025 call

  • Unraised equity needs shrink as forward sales are locked in

    Equity still to be sold fell from $1.6 billion to about $500 million over four quarters, cutting the dilution risk created by a larger capital plan.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Free cash flow is negative as construction outruns cash receipts

    Free cash flow was negative $1.1 billion over the last twelve months, so the capital plan is funded by outside debt and equity rather than by operations.

    Filed financials

  • Net debt rises to fund the capital plan

    Net debt reached $11.0 billion at mid-2026, so interest costs grow alongside the asset base and the plan relies on new borrowing as well as new stock sales.

    Filed financials

Market Position

In short: Favorable Iowa and Wisconsin regulation supports growth, while earnings rely on a few large-load customers.

Bull · 2

  • Iowa rate stability may extend beyond 2029

    A year ago staying out of Iowa rate reviews was an aspiration; management now says several hundred more megawatts of data centers could extend the stay-out past 2029.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • State commissions have approved each major request so far

    The Wisconsin settlement, Iowa advanced ratemaking for one gigawatt of wind at a 9.8% allowed return and the Meta rate agreement shorten the gap between spending and recovery.

    Q1 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Revenue is concentrating in a few hyperscale customers

    The annual report warns that large load customers raise sales concentration and credit risk, so one customer slowing construction or missing payments would hit results.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-20

  • Each data center needs its own commission-approved rate

    Individual customer rate filings for the QTS Clinton project and the recent agreement must be decided by state commissions before those investments earn a return.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-20