Camden Property Trust

CPT · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Camden spent this year trading a slow-growth California portfolio for newer Sunbelt apartments and its own shares, and the rent market it was waiting on is finally turning. The next two quarters decide whether that turn reaches the numbers.How does Camden's 2026 same-store revenue compare with Sunbelt peers?

  • Camden swapped California for newer Sunbelt apartments and its own shares.

    The $1.625 billion California sale funded seven newer Sunbelt communities and buybacks at a higher yield than those apartments earn. The portfolio ends younger, cheaper to keep up, and the swap should pay off within a couple of years.

  • Apartment pricing has turned for the first time in years.

    New supply has peaked and is falling, and the share of communities signing positive blended leases went from one in five in March to three in four by July. With concessions burning off, ending a discount lifts rent at once.How much of the rent improvement comes from Austin and Nashville?

  • The turn has not reached the reported numbers yet.

    Full-year 2026 revenue guidance has stayed under 1%, and net operating income is shrinking once California is gone. Denver's utility rebilling rule removes about 19 basis points of income, so a rule change can undo what pricing gains.What would Camden need to see to raise its 2026 revenue guidance?

Bullish
  • New apartment supply has peaked
    The bull case rests on supply: new apartment deliveries in Camden's markets have peaked and are falling, so the market should absorb the excess and rents should recover.
  • Sunbelt migration and job growth
    Demand comes from long-run migration and job growth into Sunbelt metros where Camden owns its communities, and residents pay a low share of their income in rent.
  • Signed new leases turning positive
    Management says signed new leases have turned positive on some days and renewal offers are rising, which should build into pricing power later this year and next.
Bearish
  • Rents flat for several years
    The bear case is that Camden has posted little or no rent growth for years, and the current-year outlook again assumes only a small pickup weighted to the second half.
  • Forecasters cut rent growth
    Forecasters have already lowered expected market rent growth for Camden's markets, and management has pushed the timing of the recovery out by another year.
  • Hiring and consumer confidence
    Apartment demand depends on job growth, and hiring has been weak for recent graduates while consumer confidence in Houston has fallen even as residents' incomes hold up.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$1KMar 27Jul 21
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KJun 2Jul 6
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Sale≥$1KMar 23Apr 7
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Sale≥$15KFeb 5Mar 9
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$15KJan 29Feb 6

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2018 · USD

How Camden Property Trust turned $7.2M of revenue into $0 of gross profit.

Revenue
Real Estate, Other$112.5M
Management Fee Revenue$7.2M
Total revenue$7.2M
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