UDR, Inc.

UDR · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

UDR's four calls tell one story: rent growth stalled in 2025, then new supply began to recede and the coastal portfolio repriced, letting management raise 2026 guidance in Q2 FY2026. What happens next now depends on jobs, not on new apartments. How much of the 2026 guidance raise came from coastal rents?

  • Coastal markets carried the recovery; the Sunbelt never joined it.

    San Francisco blends hit double digits and New York ran near 7%, while the Sunbelt stayed negative, because that is where new supply kept landing. Most of UDR's income sits on the coasts, so the portfolio grows while the Sunbelt sits flat. Which Sunbelt markets still have the most new supply left to lease?

  • Retention became the profit lever, not just a nice statistic.

    Turnover is tracking near 37% against a long-run 51%, letting UDR push renewals up more than 5%. Fewer move-outs means less vacancy, repair work and unpaid rent, which is why it cut its expense outlook while raising revenue.

  • The strategy trades today's earnings for a better portfolio.

    UDR is selling assets it thinks will grow slowly to buy back stock and letting its lending book run off. Each $100 million it does not relend costs roughly a penny a share, so the trade pays only once new buildings out-earn old loans. How much of the lending book is paid back before 2028?

Bullish
  • Apartment supply is shrinking
    The bull case is that new apartment completions are falling across UDR's markets, so the concessions that have held rents down should fade through 2027.
  • Coastal markets carry rent growth
    Because most of net operating income comes from coastal markets, strong San Francisco and New York pricing can carry results while the Sunbelt lags.
  • Asset sales fund buybacks
    Management is selling its slower-growth older buildings at private prices well above what the public market pays for its shares, then retiring stock.
Bearish
  • Sunbelt supply overhang
    The bear case is that Sunbelt markets still absorb heavy new supply, so the smaller Sunbelt share of income keeps posting falling rents and drags total growth.
  • Pricing power has not returned
    New leases are still signing below year-earlier rents, so all revenue growth depends on renewals and any slowdown there removes the only remaining lift.
  • Rent control on the ballot
    Ballot measures in Massachusetts and California and pending rules in New York and Washington could cap increases in markets that generate the most cash flow.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KMar 26May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$100KJan 6May 13
Julie Johnson
Democratic · House · TX-32
Purchase≥$1KSep 23Aug 5
Julie Johnson
Democratic · House · TX-32
Sale≥$1KSep 23Aug 5
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$1KMar 27Jul 21

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2024 · USD

How UDR turned $1.7B of revenue into $284.6M of operating income.

Revenue
Management Service$8.3M▲ 22.06% YoY
Total revenue$1.7B
Gross profit$417.0M24.9%
Operating income$284.6M17.0%
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