The TJX Companies, Inc.

TJX · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2027

TJX keeps beating its own plan on a glut of closeout branded goods and a wide footprint, and it has raised its full-year outlook twice. But the last call flipped the story: the smaller divisions carried the quarter while Marmaxx, 60% of sales, tripped over its own buying.

  • Marmaxx's stumble is now the whole story.

    Marmaxx's existing-store sales grew just 1% in Q2 FY2027, against mid-to-high single digits everywhere else. Management called it 'self-inflicted' — wrong mix, not lost shoppers. Marmaxx is 60% of sales, so a slow fix keeps growth near 4%. How did Marmaxx's sales trend month by month through August?

  • The closeout glut is what actually feeds this business.

    Availability is 'off the charts' on a third straight call, because other retailers keep importing goods they still have to move. Cheap branded closeouts let TJX sell below everyone and still make more per sale. How does today's closeout supply compare with past off-price cycles?

  • Recent profit growth leans on things that don't repeat.

    Shrink is back to pre-pandemic levels, ending that yearly boost. The fuel hedge gain was booked in Q1 and Q3 margin is guided lower on diesel, with tariff refunds helping Q2. The next two quarters show how much of it is real selling. How much of the Q1 profit beat came from the fuel hedge gain?

Bullish
  • Market share gains
    The bull case is that TJX keeps taking market share because shoppers want branded goods at a discount every day rather than waiting for promotions.
  • Store count expansion
    Management has repeatedly raised its long-term store count and now plans faster openings, which adds a source of growth beyond existing stores.
  • Closeout supply access
    Vendors use TJX to clear excess inventory, and management says availability exceeds what it can buy, which supports both the value gap and merchandise margin.
Bearish
  • Marmaxx execution risk
    The bear case is that the largest division lost its merchandising edge, and management's own fix timeline pushes a normal sales pace out to the holiday quarter.
  • Slowing comp guidance
    Comparable sales are guided to slow in the second half, so the recent pace depends on comparisons and demand that management does not expect to repeat.
  • Tariff and fuel costs
    Higher fuel costs and one-time tariff refunds make the margin picture harder to read, and the tariff assumptions behind guidance have already changed once.
See the full bull & bear case
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Product segmentsGeography
FY2026 · USD

How The TJX Companies turned $60.4B of revenue into $7.2B of operating income.

Revenue
Marmaxx$36.6B▲ 5.72% YoY
HomeGoods$10.2B▲ 8.37% YoY
TJX International$8.0B▲ 11.21% YoY
TJX Canada$5.6B▲ 8.48% YoY
Total revenue$60.4B
Gross profit$18.7B31.0%
Operating income$7.2B11.9%
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