Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2027

Constellation has stopped the beer decline and is buying consumers back with the biggest marketing push in years. Profit is arriving late: the margin target came down and the new brewery's costs land before its beer does. What closed the gap to the 39% beer margin target set in April 2025?

  • Beer stopped shrinking, but the growth came from the small brands.

    Beer revenue fell in FY2026 and only now leveled off. Q2 FY2027 made Constellation the industry's biggest share gainer, led by Pacifico, up near 20%. Modelo and Corona Extra have only stopped falling, so growth now leans on smaller brands. Which brands are gaining shelf space fastest outside the West Coast?

  • Beer margin guidance was cut and the recovery pushed out.

    Beer margin guidance was cut to 37-38% for this year, with nothing given past it. Veracruz starts brewing in early FY2028 with about $75 million a year of new depreciation, while marketing stays above 10% of sales. The costs land first.

  • Part of the Q2 beat was warehouse refilling, not shoppers.

    The first half shipped about 8 million cases more than customers bought, refilling warehouses that ran too low last year. Guidance stayed anyway, so shipments should now grow slower than store-level sales. How much of the Q2 beer gain came from restocking distributors?

Bullish
  • Mexican beer distribution headroom
    The bull case is that Modelo and Corona still have shelf space and awareness to gain, so beer can grow even if the overall category does not.
  • Newer brands scaling
    Pacifico, Victoria and Corona non-alcoholic are compounding fast enough to add growth on their own, reducing reliance on the two largest brands recovering.
  • Marketing and field execution
    New management has raised marketing spending and pushed more granular field execution, and the company is again taking dollar share from competitors.
Bearish
  • Hispanic consumer pressure
    The bear case is that the company's core Hispanic shopper is still cutting back, and management itself says visibility is too low to forecast demand confidently.
  • Beer margin guidance
    Beer margins have already been guided lower and a new brewery will add depreciation before it adds volume, so profit per case may not recover with sales.
  • Wine and spirits decline
    Wine and spirits is shrinking quickly, which drags consolidated revenue and forces distributor inventory adjustments that take time to work through.
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Product segmentsGeography
FY2026 · USD

How Constellation Brands turned $9.1B of revenue into $2.7B of operating income.

Revenue
Beer$8.3B▼ 2.63% YoY
ConstellationWinesAndSpirits$823.8M▼ 50.64% YoY
Total revenue$9.1B
Gross profit$4.7B51.6%
Operating income$2.7B29.8%