Ross Stores, Inc.

ROST · NASDAQ · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Ross went from steady single-digit comps to the biggest same-store sales growth in its history, built on more shoppers rather than higher prices, and has raised full-year earnings guidance twice. The open question is how much was new customers and how much was timing. How does this customer growth compare with TJX and Burlington?

  • Customer count, not prices, is now driving the growth.

    Transactions drove the comp again and customer counts rose double digits across every income, age and ethnic group. Because the new shoppers look like the old ones, the same ranges and marketing already work on them. Which merchandise categories are gaining the most new customers?

  • Management has not raised its long-term growth target.

    Guidance for the year was raised twice, but the long-term model is still a 3% to 4% comp and management put any revision off until it is 'further along' in tests running in only some stores. Ross treats its own boom as unproven. What would have to happen for management to raise its long-term comp target?

  • One-time money is doing real work in these numbers.

    Tariff refunds added about $0.60 a share to the raised guidance, inventory is growing faster than sales and higher fuel is a second-half drag. Without the refund, profit growth is closer to the modest gain management always promised.

Bullish
  • Customer acquisition
    The bull case is that Ross is winning new and returning customers rather than simply riding a strong market, so growth rests on a wider base of shoppers.
  • Share shift from department stores
    Management argues the share gains come mainly from department and specialty stores rather than from other off-price chains, leaving room to keep growing.
  • New store productivity
    New stores are opening at better productivity than the company underwrote, which supports faster unit growth without a matching increase in spending.
Bearish
  • Decelerating comparable sales
    The bear case is that the comparable sales rate steps down sharply through the year as Ross laps unusually strong numbers and the easiest customer gains are already captured.
  • One-time tariff refunds
    Reported profit growth leans on tariff refunds that will not repeat, so the underlying earnings trend is weaker than the headline numbers imply.
  • Consumer spending pressure
    Shoppers are absorbing higher fuel and food costs, and demand for discretionary apparel has historically reversed quickly when households cut back.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 11May 13
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KMay 27Jun 9
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KMay 15Jun 9
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KApr 13May 11
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KJan 23Feb 6

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

See all
Product segmentsGeography
FY2024 · USD

How Ross Stores turned $21.1B of revenue into $2.6B of operating income.

Revenue
Home Accents and Bed and Bath$5.5B▲ 3.69% YoY
Ladies$4.6B▼ 0.82% YoY
Mens$3.4B▲ 10.60% YoY
Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry, And Cosmetics$3.2B▲ 3.69% YoY
Shoes$2.5B▼ 4.28% YoY
Childrens$1.9B▲ 16.65% YoY
Total revenue$21.1B
Gross profit$5.9B27.8%
Operating income$2.6B12.2%
See all