Medtronic Plc

Medtronic has stopped being a mid-single-digit grower. Growth has accelerated for four straight quarters to the best in a decade, but much of the cash that growth throws off is being spent building new markets that will not pay for themselves for years. How much of the Affera installed base turns into catheter revenue each year?

• Growth now comes from new products, not the old base.

  Cardiac ablation grew at more than twice its market and passed $2 billion in trailing revenue sooner than promised. The full-year guide has been raised twice, and the lift comes from new launches, not older businesses.

• The upside is being spent rather than banked.

  Management took the revenue beat and spent it on mapper hires, consumer ads and R&D, so operating margin stays held down by tariffs and by selling low-margin mapping systems before the catheters they pull through. When does the extra spending start showing up in operating margin?

• Three more launches are selling into markets that barely exist.

  Symplicity is annualizing near $100 million, Altaviva implants doubled in a quarter and Hugo has passed 50,000 procedures. All three need trained doctors and insurer sign-off before that work turns into revenue. Which of Symplicity, Altaviva and Hugo brings in revenue first?