Keysight Technologies, Inc.

KEYS · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q3 FY2026

Keysight stopped being a steady mid-single-digit grower. AI data center spending made wireline its largest business and lifted full-year growth to 32%, and what limits revenue now is supply rather than demand. How much of the AI backlog is scheduled to ship in fiscal 2027?

  • AI data center demand turned Keysight into a fast-growing company.

    Wireline passed wireless for the first time, and AI revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026 alone matched all of last year. AI was a tenth of revenue a year ago, so growth now rides on one customer group's spending. How much of wireline revenue is AI today, and how much is still telecom?

  • Profit flowed through faster than management had promised.

    Operating margin passed the 31% long-term target the CFO had called years away during the downturn, and two thirds of every new dollar of revenue reached the bottom line. The extra sales land almost entirely on profit. How much of that margin gain came from the one-time tariff refund?

  • Supply, not demand, now sets how fast revenue can grow.

    Orders in Q3 FY2026 ran ahead of what Keysight could ship, and management called supply "the governor of near-term revenue." It makes many of its own chips but still buys parts the whole AI supply chain wants, so revenue trails orders.

Bullish
  • AI data center test demand
    The bull case is that AI data center build-outs are driving demand for Keysight's test and emulation tools faster than the company can add supply.
  • Repeated guidance raises
    Wireline has overtaken wireless as the largest part of commercial sales, and management has raised its outlook each quarter as orders convert.
  • Defense and semiconductor demand
    Defense modernization and semiconductor capacity spending give Keysight two more growth legs beyond AI, and record gross margins show pricing power.
Bearish
  • Supply limits shipments
    The bear case is that supply chain availability, not customer demand, now caps revenue, so orders keep outpacing what Keysight can ship and book.
  • AI capital spending cycle
    Much of the growth rests on one AI data center capital spending cycle, and test equipment sales fall quickly when customers pause those budgets.
  • One-time tariff refunds
    Reported profit is flattered by one-time tariff refunds that will not repeat, and the software mix that supported margins has slipped as hardware grows faster.
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 12May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 11May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$50KMar 2May 13

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2024 · USD

How Keysight Technologies turned $5.0B of revenue into $833.0M of operating income.

Revenue
Communications Solutions Group$3.4B▼ 7.19% YoY
Electronic Industrial Solutions Group$1.6B▼ 12.37% YoY
Total revenue$5.0B
Gross profit$3.1B62.9%
Operating income$833.0M16.7%