Jacobs Solutions Inc.

J · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q3 FY2026

The AI build-out is now this company's growth story: data centre and chip work filled a record backlog and drove three straight guidance raises, while the rest of the portfolio stalled. Everything hangs on that backlog converting on time. How much of the record backlog converts to revenue within two years?

  • AI infrastructure is now the engine of this business.

    Data centre work more than doubled year on year and is now 11% of adjusted net revenue. The end market it sits in went from mid-single-digit growth to 24%, its fastest, and management now sees the pipeline years out, not quarters out.

  • Management raised guidance in each of the last three quarters.

    Sales growth, margin and earnings per share were each raised at Q1, Q2 and Q3 FY2026, and implied earnings growth went from about 16% to nearly 19%. Management called the Q2 upgrade operating performance, not a PA accounting effect. How does this year's guidance compare with the FY2029 targets?

  • Water and environmental has stalled while AI carries the growth.

    That end market's growth has slowed to roughly 1% as industrial and government clients paused spending, and the recovery it keeps pointing to sits in the final quarter. Water itself grows; the wider segment contributes almost nothing. How do Jacobs' profit margins compare with its engineering peers?

Bullish
  • Backlog conversion
    The bull case is that record bookings are converting into revenue faster each quarter, so growth now depends on how quickly awarded work ramps rather than on demand.
  • Data center and AI scope
    Data centers and semiconductors grew from a small specialty into a fast-growing part of the business, and management expects that to continue as AI capacity is built.
  • Margin expansion plan
    Management has raised its long-term margin and cash targets and is delivering against them, with operating leverage and lower-cost global delivery doing most of the work.
Bearish
  • Environmental recovery timing
    The environmental business has not recovered, and management keeps moving the date of a turnaround, leaving a whole end market below the level it once held.
  • Pass-through revenue mix
    Large data center awards carry heavy equipment pass-through, so reported revenue growth overstates the profit added and pulls the reported margin rate down.
  • Debt from PA purchase
    Buying the rest of PA Consulting turned a lightly indebted balance sheet into a leveraged one, so paying down debt now competes with buybacks for cash.
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$250KJul 20Sep 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$15KMay 5Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$15KMar 27May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$100KMar 17May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$100KFeb 10May 13

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Jacobs Solutions turned $12.0B of revenue into $863.6M of operating income.

Revenue
Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities$10.8B
PA Consulting$1.3B▲ 7.46% YoY
Total revenue$12.0B
Gross profit$3.0B24.8%
Operating income$863.6M7.2%