The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q3 FY2026

Goldman has rebuilt itself around the client relationship: advice pulls in lending, underwriting and wealth work, and financing now supplies over 40% of markets revenue. The whole thing rests on the AI build-out.Which advisory clients convert into financing and wealth mandates?

  • Financing turned into a steady earner rather than a trading swing.

    Prime balances and asset-secured lending set records in every quarter; financing is now over 40% of FICC and equities revenue. That is money earned on client balances, not on the market's mood, which lifts the floor under earnings.How does financing revenue behave in a quarter of falling markets?

  • Asset and Wealth Management became the growth engine.

    Wealth inflows run at more than double the 5% target set in January and the goal for alternatives fundraising has been raised twice. That fee income arrives whether or not clients trade, so results swing less with the market.

  • One cycle now sits under much of the firm's growth.

    Clients want far more AI financing than the firm will take on, and the sponsor buyouts expected to revive are still below normal. The pipeline that lifts revenue also decides what the firm is owed if the build-out slows.How much of the M&A backlog depends on sponsor exits finally picking up?

Bullish
  • Advisory fees pull through
    The bull case is that Goldman's advisory franchise wins mandates faster than peers, and that work pulls financing, underwriting and investing fees behind it.
  • Recurring management fees
    It also rests on management fees from alternatives and wealth, which recur regardless of how many deals close and are growing faster than the firm.
  • AI infrastructure financing
    Supporters add that AI data-center construction needs capital the firm can structure across public and private markets, a role few competitors can fill.
Bearish
  • Cyclical trading and lending
    The bear case is that the firm's best-ever revenues came from clients borrowing and trading heavily, activity that shrinks when markets fall.
  • Delayed sponsor exits
    Selling by buyout sponsors, a large fee pool management has said will return, keeps being pushed out, leaving part of its pipeline uncollected.
  • Untested credit cycle
    A long stretch without a real credit cycle has left the growing loan book untested, and provisions are already rising as impairments appear.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KJun 23Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$250KJun 15Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMay 5Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$100KMay 5Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$50KMar 27May 13

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

See all
Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How The Goldman Sachs Group turned $58.3B of revenue into $21.9B of operating income.

Revenue
Global Markets$41.5B▲ 18.63% YoY
Investment Management$16.7B▲ 3.33% YoY
Platform Solutions$151.0M▼ 93.78% YoY
Total revenue$58.3B
Operating income$21.9B37.5%
See all