Fox Corporation

FOXA · NASDAQ · USD

Can Fox keep growing advertising and distribution revenue through Tubi, FOX One and live news and sports fast enough to offset pay-TV subscriber declines and rising sports rights costs?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q4 FY2026

Bull case

  • Live news and sports pricing

    The bull case is that live news and sports keep taking advertising share from entertainment television, letting Fox raise prices well ahead of the market.

  • Tubi and FOX One streaming

    Tubi and FOX One reach viewers who no longer buy a traditional TV package, so streaming adds revenue rather than replacing existing subscribers.

  • Buybacks and balance sheet

    A strong balance sheet funds buybacks and a growing dividend, so each remaining share owns a larger stake in the company's profit.

Bear case

  • Pay-TV subscriber declines

    The bear case is that pay-TV subscriptions keep shrinking, and carriage fees from a handful of distributors fund a large share of the business.

  • Sports rights costs

    Sports rights are sold in competitive auctions, so holding on to the NFL, baseball and soccer means paying more for programming over time.

  • Event-driven advertising

    Advertising results swing with the World Cup and election cycles, which makes the underlying growth rate hard to judge from any single year.

  • Roku integration and debt

    Buying Roku adds regulatory approval risk, integration work and debt just as free cash flow has fallen from its prior level.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Advertising and distribution revenue are both growing, but growth leans on event-driven ad cycles.

Bull · 2

  • Tubi revenue growth accelerated to 35% by the June quarter

    Tubi's revenue grew 35% on a 17% rise in viewing time, and it was profitable in each quarter of fiscal 2026, so it now adds to profit rather than draining it.

    Q4 FY2026 call

  • FOX One now counts toward distribution revenue growth

    A year ago management said FOX One would not move distribution revenue; it now describes FOX One as a meaningful contributor and says new subscribers are additive rather than taken from pay-TV.

    Tone shiftQ1 FY2026 → Q3 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Fourth-quarter growth came largely from the World Cup

    Total revenue rose 28% in the quarter, but management says tournament revenue is weighted toward fiscal 2026, so the following year faces a harder comparison.

    Q4 FY2026 call

  • The Roku deal needs approval and a complex integration

    Roku is central to Fox's connected-TV plans, but regulators can delay the closing and combining two platform businesses is costly and slow.

    10-K, filed 2026-08-06

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Buybacks and the dividend are large, but free cash flow has fallen and event costs narrow margins.

Bull · 1

  • Digital investment is running well below the level guided a year ago

    Tubi and FOX One reached profitability faster than planned, so the drag on earnings from the new digital businesses is smaller than management first told investors.

    Tone shiftQ1 FY2026 → Q4 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Shareholder returns ran well above free cash flow last year

    Buybacks and dividends of $2.3 billion equaled 156% of free cash flow, so part of the payout came from the balance sheet rather than from the year's cash generation.

    Filed financials

  • Quarterly operating margin fell 5.2 points on World Cup costs

    Rights and production costs for major events land before the advertising is collected, so margins narrow in tournament quarters even when revenue jumps.

    Filed financials

Market Position

In short: FOX News and live sports lead their markets, while carriage and rights depend on a few large partners.

Bull · 2

  • FOX News still prices advertising well below broadcast networks

    National pricing at FOX News rose more than 45% and remains well below what broadcast networks charge, so increases can continue as new advertisers join the channel.

    Q3 FY2026 call

  • NFL terms are unchanged through the 2029 season

    A year ago management spoke of offsetting possible cost increases in a renegotiation; it now says there are no amendments, which removes a feared increase from the near term.

    Tone shiftQ2 FY2026 → Q4 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Pay-TV subscriber declines are expected to continue

    Carriage fees from cable, satellite and internet pay-TV packages fund most distribution revenue, so continued shrinkage works against the price increases won at renewal.

    10-K, filed 2026-08-06

  • Baseball, soccer and college rights expire in a competitive market

    Fox's remaining sports agreements come up on staggered schedules, and rival bidders can raise the price it must pay to keep programming it depends on.

    10-K, filed 2026-08-06