Fox Corporation
Analysis
Fox's live news and sports have become a business that earns more than it spends on streaming, and the pay-TV decline it was fighting has slowed. It is now spending to own the streaming shelf outright. How much more will Fox put into FOX One once its first full year is done?
- Streaming flipped from a cost to a profit source.
Tubi was profitable in every quarter of FY2026 and grew revenue 35% in Q4, while FOX One beat management's targets and drew subscribers who were not in the cable bundle. Digital spending fell below $200 million, from nearly $300 million. How much of Tubi's growth comes from viewers advertisers cannot reach on TV?
- The pay-TV subscriber decline has stopped getting worse.
Losses held below 6.5% for three straight quarters and management now expects distribution revenue to grow in FY2027, with TV back in growth after a flat year. The core has stopped shrinking faster than Fox can replace it.
- The next step costs far more, and the biggest bill was deferred.
Fox is buying Roku to own the streaming shelf, funded with debt, and it agreed to leave its NFL rights untouched through 2029. That defers the sport's next price rise instead of settling it, so a future year has to absorb the whole jump. How much debt will Fox carry once the Roku deal closes?
- Live news and sports pricingThe bull case is that live news and sports keep taking advertising share from entertainment television, letting Fox raise prices well ahead of the market.
- Tubi and FOX One streamingTubi and FOX One reach viewers who no longer buy a traditional TV package, so streaming adds revenue rather than replacing existing subscribers.
- Buybacks and balance sheetA strong balance sheet funds buybacks and a growing dividend, so each remaining share owns a larger stake in the company's profit.
- Pay-TV subscriber declinesThe bear case is that pay-TV subscriptions keep shrinking, and carriage fees from a handful of distributors fund a large share of the business.
- Sports rights costsSports rights are sold in competitive auctions, so holding on to the NFL, baseball and soccer means paying more for programming over time.
- Event-driven advertisingAdvertising results swing with the World Cup and election cycles, which makes the underlying growth rate hard to judge from any single year.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$15K | Aug 26 | Oct 8 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | Jul 24 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$15K | Jul 23 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$1K | Jul 17 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | Jun 24 | Aug 22 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How Fox turned $17.1B of revenue into $3.9B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Television Segment | $9.7B | ▲ 3.66% YoY |
| Cable Network Programming Segment | $7.3B | ▲ 6.03% YoY |
| Total revenue | $17.1B | |
| Gross profit | $6.3B | 36.6% |
| Operating income | $3.9B | 22.7% |