Fox Corporation

FOX · NASDAQ · USD

Can FOX's live news and sports advertising strength plus Tubi and FOX One growth outweigh shrinking pay-TV subscribers, non-recurring event revenue and rising rights costs?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q4 FY2026

Bull case

  • Live news and sports demand

    The bull case is that FOX owns the two kinds of television advertising still growing, live news and live sports, so dollars leaving entertainment channels land on its networks.

  • Streaming subscribers outside pay-TV

    Tubi and FOX One reach cord-cutters that pay-TV never had, so the company argues new streaming revenue is additive rather than a replacement for cable fees.

  • Digital spending below plan

    Digital spending has come in well below the company's own earlier plan because Tubi and FOX One are profitable sooner, so the drag on earnings is shrinking.

  • Buybacks and share count

    Buybacks funded from a cash-rich balance sheet have cut the share count sharply over three years, which raises per-share profit even when operating growth is modest.

Bear case

  • Non-recurring event advertising

    The bear case is that recent advertising records came from the World Cup and a midterm election year, so the underlying advertising base is smaller than the headline growth suggests.

  • Free cash flow versus payouts

    Free cash flow fell sharply as sports rights payments and capital spending rose, while buybacks and the dividend kept consuming more cash than the business generated.

  • Pay-TV subscriber erosion

    Pay-TV households keep cancelling and television distribution revenue was flat, so the cable networks have to carry distribution growth on their own.

  • Roku purchase and leverage

    The pending Roku acquisition adds debt and awaits regulatory clearance, which reduces the balance sheet room that has funded buybacks and cushioned weak years.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Tubi and FOX One are growing quickly, while much of the recent ad growth came from non-recurring events.

Bull · 2

  • Tubi revenue growth accelerated to 35% in the fourth quarter

    Tubi is the main offset to falling pay-TV distribution revenue at the television segment, so its momentum protects total company revenue.

    Q4 FY2026 call

  • Distribution revenue is guided to grow in both segments next year

    Affiliate and subscription fees are FOX's most predictable revenue, and growth in both cable and television would end the stretch when television distribution was flat.

    Q4 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Fourth quarter revenue growth of 28% depended on the World Cup

    The tournament does not recur, so the fourth quarter sets a comparison that the same quarter next year cannot match without another event of similar size.

    Filed financials

  • Pay-TV subscriber declines of under 6.5% still drag on distribution

    Television distribution revenue was flat for the year even with pricing increases, so affiliate growth depends entirely on the cable networks.

    Q4 FY2026 call

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Record EBITDA and heavy buybacks continue while free cash flow fell and margins narrowed.

Bull · 1

  • Digital investment came in below $200 million against a $350 million plan

    A year ago management guided digital spending to about $350 million for fiscal 2026; it now reports under $200 million and expects further improvement, which lifts profit.

    Tone shiftQ1 FY2026 → Q4 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Free cash flow fell to $1.5 billion from $3.0 billion a year earlier

    Sports rights payments and higher capital spending pulled free cash flow down, which matters because the buyback and dividend are paid from that cash.

    Filed financials

  • Fourth quarter operating margin fell 5.2 points to 23.1%

    World Cup rights and FOX One running costs raised expenses faster than revenue in the quarter, showing that event programming and the new streaming service carry real cost.

    Filed financials

Market Position

In short: FOX News and the NFL make FOX's channels must-have, but rights costs and streaming competition limit pricing.

Bull · 2

  • FOX News ad pricing is up more than 45% and still trails broadcast

    Because its rates remain about half of what broadcast networks get for similar audiences, FOX News can keep raising prices as it adds new advertisers.

    Q3 FY2026 call

  • NFL terms are fixed through 2029 with no price increase

    Management previously discussed offsetting a possible step-up in NFL rights costs; it now says there will be no amendments to the contract through the 2029 season.

    Tone shiftQ2 FY2026 → Q4 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Connected TV ad inventory is plentiful and buyers are price sensitive

    Tubi is growing fast inside a market where rivals cut rates to win volume, which limits how much of its viewing growth converts into revenue.

    Q4 FY2026 call

  • The Roku purchase will close at about 2.8 times net leverage

    The deal is still in an early regulatory approval stage and adds debt, so the buyback capacity that supported per-share growth will be smaller while Roku is integrated.

    Q4 FY2026 call