Domino's Pizza, Inc.
Analysis
Domino's is winning the order-count fight and losing the ticket fight. Orders grew all year while the money per order shrank, so sales expected to rise are landing flat — and franchisee profit is now the constraint on everything.How far has franchisee profit per store actually fallen?
- Orders are growing while the money in each order shrinks.
Order counts grew in delivery and carryout all year while restaurant orders overall were flat. But customers buy fewer items and prices barely move, so each order brings in less — which is why US comps went from growing to flat.How much of the ticket decline is items per order versus price?
- Value in pizza is now a fight only Domino's says it can afford.
Competitors copied Best Deal Ever in the first quarter and it cost Domino's sales. Its answer is scale: the ad budget matches its two biggest pizza rivals combined, and their franchisees keep closing, handing Domino's sales it did not buy.How many rival closures sit in markets Domino's already serves?
- Every leg of the 2026 outlook has been trimmed since February.
Since February the US comp goal, the international comp goal, US store openings and profit growth have all been cut. US franchisee profit and overseas operator DPE are the drag, and DPE sees no real recovery until 2027.
- Order growth across channelsThe bull case is that Domino's is adding orders in delivery and carryout while the rest of fast food is flat, building a base to sell to more often later.
- Marketplace share gapDomino's argues that selling on the big delivery apps has brought customers it could not otherwise reach, and that it is still well short of the share it should hold there.
- Carryout share opportunityCarryout is the larger half of the pizza market and Domino's holds less of it than of delivery, which the company treats as its clearest source of added sales.
- Same-store sales guidance cutManagement has lowered its U.S. sales target twice this year, blaming a weaker consumer, heavier discounting by rivals and a premium pizza launch that did not sell.
- Store development pipelineNew store openings are guided lower because franchisees earning less per store commit to fewer builds, and those openings had supplied much of the sales growth.
- Master franchisee dragResults outside the U.S. now hinge on turning around the largest master franchisee, which has deliberately cut unprofitable orders and pushed its markets below plan.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$250K | Aug 21 | Oct 8 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$250K | Jul 20 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$50K | Jun 24 | Aug 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | Jun 23 | Aug 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$50K | May 22 | Jul 1 |
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How Domino's Pizza turned $4.9B of revenue into $954.0M of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Supply Chain | $3.0B | ▲ 5.05% YoY |
| Domestic Stores | $1.6B | ▲ 4.53% YoY |
| International Franchise | $338.7M | ▲ 6.28% YoY |
| Total revenue | $4.9B | |
| Gross profit | $2.0B | 40.0% |
| Operating income | $954.0M | 19.3% |