Coinbase Global, Inc.

COIN · NASDAQ · USD

Can derivatives, prediction markets and stablecoin distribution grow fast enough to offset a spot crypto trading business that shrinks whenever prices fall?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Bull case

  • Trading beyond crypto

    The bull case is that adding derivatives, equities and prediction markets makes Coinbase a multi-asset venue whose revenue no longer depends on spot crypto alone.

  • Stablecoin distribution

    Coinbase distributes USDC, settles payments on Base and sells the developer tools, so it earns on stablecoin activity even when trading fees are weak.

  • Cost reset and buybacks

    Management cut the cost base and is buying back stock, so per-share results can hold up even while revenue is under pressure from crypto prices.

  • Trust drives share gains

    Coinbase argues customers consolidate on the venue they trust when markets fall, so share won in a downturn should carry into the recovery.

Bear case

  • Crypto price dependence

    The bear case is that trading revenue keeps rising and falling with crypto prices, and the new asset classes are still too small to offset a deep downturn.

  • Subscription fee compression

    As more volume moves into Coinbase One subscriptions and advanced trading, the fee Coinbase keeps on each trade keeps shrinking, so growth needs more volume.

  • Regulatory timing risk

    Much of the growth plan assumes the CLARITY Act becomes law, and the timetable has slipped while the odds of passage remain uncertain.

  • Price competition from new venues

    Decentralized exchanges and new trading venues compete on price for the same trades, and an automated buyer has no reason to pay for Coinbase's brand.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Derivatives and prediction markets are scaling fast, but spot trading revenue still falls with crypto prices.

Bull · 2

  • Retail derivatives are on pace to top $250 million annualized

    Derivatives are most of crypto trading volume, so a scaled retail derivatives book gives Coinbase a revenue line that does not depend on spot token prices alone.

    Q1 FY2026 call

  • Prediction markets passed $100 million annualized in two months

    The product reached every customer in Q1 and scaled quickly, which shows Coinbase can add non-crypto markets to an app that already holds customer assets.

    Q1 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Consumer transaction revenue fell 30.5% year over year

    Consumer trading is still the largest revenue line, so a decline of that size shows how quickly the core business shrinks when crypto prices and volumes fall.

    Filed financials

  • Management gives no per-product outlook for the new markets

    Without targets for equities, prediction markets or commodities, readers cannot judge how much of the consumer revenue gap these new asset classes are expected to close.

    Q1 FY2026 call

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Adjusted EBITDA stays positive through downturns, but revenue still swings with crypto prices and rates.

Bull · 2

  • Expense guidance moved from investment year to cost cut

    A quarter ago management called 2025 an investment year and guided quarterly costs flat; it now points to a 2026 expense range about $500 million below the Q4 exit rate.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q1 FY2026

  • Buybacks fully offset 2025 stock-based compensation dilution

    Coinbase repurchased $1.7 billion of stock and added a new authorization, which keeps the share count from growing while employees are paid in equity.

    Q4 FY2025 call
Bear · 2

  • Stablecoin revenue fell 12.1% year over year to $292 million

    Stablecoin revenue depends on USDC balances and short-term interest rates, so rate cuts hit a subscription line investors otherwise treat as recurring.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-12

  • USDC rewards tie expense growth to stablecoin balances

    Management said 2026 costs would be flat to 2025 without growth in USDC rewards, so a large part of the expense base scales with customer balances rather than with revenue.

    Q1 FY2026 call

Market Position

In short: Coinbase gains share and shapes crypto rules, but revenue still depends on a volatile trading cycle.

Bull · 2

  • Trading market share hit an all-time high in a down quarter

    Coinbase gained share in both spot and derivatives while total crypto volume fell, supporting the argument that customers move to large regulated venues in weak markets.

    Q1 FY2026 call

  • Stablecoin rewards survived the Senate compromise text

    The CLARITY draft preserves activity-based rewards and leaves the Circle revenue share untouched, which protects the stablecoin economics Coinbase's payments plan depends on.

    Q1 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Revenue fell 60.3% in the last crypto downturn

    The 2021 to 2023 decline took the operating margin from 39.2% to negative 5.2%, showing how far revenue and profitability can fall when the crypto cycle turns.

    Filed financials

  • CLARITY timing guidance has become more hedged

    In May management expected signed legislation by the end of the summer; by July it said it could not be sure and that Coinbase would be fine without the bill.

    Tone shiftQ1 FY2026 → Q2 FY2026