Coinbase Global, Inc.

COIN · NASDAQ · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Coinbase's trading revenue is down roughly half from its peak as crypto prices slid, taking total revenue with it. Management is rebuilding the business around derivatives, prediction markets and stablecoins — and betting a US bill in the Senate unlocks the rest. How much revenue did derivatives and prediction markets add in Q2 FY2026?

  • Trading rolled over and the new products only partly fill the gap.

    Consumer trading revenue is down about 46% from its Q3 FY2025 peak. Derivatives passed $200 million a year and prediction markets reached a similar run rate within months — real growth, but far smaller than what trading gave up.

  • Management stopped spending like a boom was coming.

    After a year of hiring and dealmaking, Q1 FY2026 brought a headcount cut and a cost base roughly $500 million below the Q4 2025 exit rate. Coinbase is resizing itself to a smaller trading market instead of waiting for the old one back. What did the 2026 headcount reduction actually save per year?

  • The next leg of the story sits with the US Senate.

    Management expected CLARITY to pass by summer; on the Q2 FY2026 call it sat 'at the 1-yard line', with prediction markets pricing it near 30%. Coinbase hedged with a stablecoin deal, but its tokenized-stock plans wait on the rules. What changes for USDC economics if CLARITY's rewards language becomes law?

Bullish
  • Trading beyond crypto
    The bull case is that adding derivatives, equities and prediction markets makes Coinbase a multi-asset venue whose revenue no longer depends on spot crypto alone.
  • Stablecoin distribution
    Coinbase distributes USDC, settles payments on Base and sells the developer tools, so it earns on stablecoin activity even when trading fees are weak.
  • Cost reset and buybacks
    Management cut the cost base and is buying back stock, so per-share results can hold up even while revenue is under pressure from crypto prices.
Bearish
  • Crypto price dependence
    The bear case is that trading revenue keeps rising and falling with crypto prices, and the new asset classes are still too small to offset a deep downturn.
  • Subscription fee compression
    As more volume moves into Coinbase One subscriptions and advanced trading, the fee Coinbase keeps on each trade keeps shrinking, so growth needs more volume.
  • Regulatory timing risk
    Much of the growth plan assumes the CLARITY Act becomes law, and the timetable has slipped while the odds of passage remain uncertain.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KAug 10Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KJul 24Sep 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$50KJun 24Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KJun 23Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$100KJun 18Aug 22

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Coinbase Global turned $7.2B of revenue into $1.4B of operating income.

Revenue
Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net$3.3B▼ 3.13% YoY
Subscription and Circulation, Stablecoin$1.3B▲ 48.15% YoY
Subscription and Circulation, Blockchain Infrastructure Service$677.4M▼ 4.02% YoY
Subscription and Circulation, Other$554.8M▲ 95.75% YoY
Bank Servicing, Institutional$479.7M▲ 38.79% YoY
Other Revenue$297.9M▲ 10.01% YoY
Bank Servicing, Other$252.9M▲ 20.31% YoY
Total revenue$7.2B
Gross profit$5.4B74.6%
Operating income$1.4B20.0%
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