CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
Analysis
CenterPoint keeps finding more large-load growth in Houston than it planned for. But the money to serve it goes out years before the bills arrive, and the funding leans on an Ohio gas-utility sale and a tax windfall not yet booked. How much of the 17 gigawatts is already in the capital plan?
- Houston's committed load pipeline keeps growing faster than planned.
CenterPoint filed 17 gigawatts of large-load projects into ERCOT's new batch process in Q2 FY2026, over 65% above Houston Electric's system peak. They plug into capacity it already has, so the extra load arrives at almost no new cost.
- The build still costs far more than the business brings in.
Free cash flow is negative each quarter, capital spending ran double the cash the business generated in the first half of 2026, and none of the new large-load charges are in guidance yet, so the bill arrives years before the payoff does. How much annual cash tax does the tax rule change remove?
- Indiana is the swing factor nobody can size yet.
Management is chasing a single customer that would be the largest load in Southern Indiana, worth about $1 billion of spending. Unlike Houston, it would need new power plants, so a win there would cost shareholders more. How much equity would Indiana need if it builds generation?
- Firmly committed load energizes close to schedule. Every gigawatt adds about $6 million a month of charges with little new spending, so profit grows faster than costs.
- The tax change and Ohio sale cover the funding gap. CenterPoint funds the build without selling shares, so the growth belongs to today's owners rather than to new ones.
- Indiana's first big data center customer signs before year-end. It brings roughly $1 billion of new investment and turns a slow-growth state into a second source of demand.
- Energization slips toward the end of the decade. The wires get paid for years before the new customers do, so earnings lag the spending and cash keeps draining.
- The tax refund, Ohio proceeds or generator sale disappoint. CenterPoint has to raise money elsewhere, likely by selling shares, so the same profit is spread among more owners.
- Indiana's customer slips, or the deal needs its own plants. Building generation there would mean selling shares, so an Indiana win costs owners more than Houston growth did.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$100K | Aug 21 | Oct 8 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$100K | Jul 20 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$15K | Jun 23 | Aug 22 |
Kevin Hern Republican · House · OK-1 | Sale | ≥$15K | Sep 15 | Sep 25 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Sale | ≥$1K | Jan 29 | Feb 6 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How CenterPoint Energy turned $9.4B of revenue into $2.1B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Electric Transmission & Distribution | $4.9B | ▲ 6.01% YoY |
| Natural Gas Segment | $4.5B | ▲ 11.24% YoY |
| Total revenue | $9.4B | |
| Gross profit | $9.4B | 100.0% |
| Operating income | $2.1B | 22.5% |