Chubb Limited

Chubb is deliberately shrinking its biggest business, refusing to write commercial property and financial lines at today's prices. Earnings keep beating estimates because consumer insurance abroad and a fast-growing investment portfolio are filling the gap. Where does Chubb's premium growth come from now that U.S. commercial is shrinking?

• Chubb is walking away from business it used to win.

  U.S. large-account property prices fell about 40% on business Chubb passed on, so North America commercial shrank in Q3 FY2026. Management calls the pricing "dumb"; walking away protects margin but costs it growth. How much premium has Chubb given up in U.S. property this year?

• Growth now comes from consumers abroad, not U.S. companies.

  Overseas general grew 6.7% while U.S. commercial shrank, driven by accident and health and personal lines across Asia and Latin America; life income is up 11% over nine months. That spread means one soft market cannot sink the book. Which Asian markets drove the overseas growth this quarter?

• Casualty prices are now falling behind what claims cost.

  U.S. casualty claims costs rise 6% to 7% a year while prices in many lines no longer keep up; London is writing U.S. casualty on terms that "can only end one way". Those losses surface years later, so today's margin flatters tomorrow's.