Blackstone Inc.

BX · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Blackstone has spent four years turning itself into the funding arm of the AI build-out, and that bet now drives its returns, its fundraising and the new companies it creates. What it has not yet produced is the cash. How much of Blackstone's uncollected performance fees comes from AI assets?

  • AI infrastructure is now the engine of the whole firm.

    Almost every one of the biggest write-ups in Q2 FY2026 came from AI-related holdings, and QTS data centres drove returns in infrastructure, real estate and for the firm overall. Profits and fundraising now lean on one theme.

  • Retail money is leaving the credit fund that institutions keep buying.

    The flagship retail credit fund breached its 5% repurchase cap in Q2 FY2026, filling only half, while insurers and institutions set credit fundraising records. The wealth channel is now the wobble, not the strength. How much of Blackstone's credit growth now comes from insurers?

  • The exits management keeps promising have slipped again.

    Q4 FY2025 pointed to realizations accelerating through 2026; by Q2 FY2026 management guided to a slowdown in Q3 before a strong fourth quarter. Uncollected fees sit at a four-year high, so profit is earned before it lands. Which Blackstone funds hold the largest uncollected performance fees?

Bullish
  • AI infrastructure capital demand
    The bull case is that Blackstone owns the largest data center business, and the capital needed to build AI infrastructure lifts infrastructure, real estate and credit at once.
  • Three client channels
    It also rests on institutions, insurers and wealthy individuals each adding private-market allocations, so inflows do not depend on one type of client or one region.
  • Capital-light fee model
    Because it manages other people's money rather than carrying debt or insurance liabilities, more fee-earning assets convert into distributable earnings.
Bearish
  • Retail credit redemptions
    The bear case is that retail credit vehicles are losing assets to redemptions, and quarterly repurchase limits make lost confidence slow to win back.
  • Exit timing keeps slipping
    It also argues that realisations cannot be relied on, because exit pipelines have been pushed out repeatedly by wars, shutdowns and moves in interest rates.
  • Software and AI disruption
    AI cuts both ways, since software and professional services holdings face disruption risk that could force write-downs faster than new investments pay off.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$250KAug 21Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KJun 24Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$50KJun 18Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KJun 16Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KJun 15Aug 22

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Blackstone turned $14.5B of revenue into $7.2B of operating income.

Revenue
Private Equity Segment$1.7B▲ 19.94% YoY
Real Estate Segment$489.6M▲ 140.70% YoY
Total revenue$14.5B
Operating income$7.2B49.7%
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