Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

BMY · NYSE · USD

Can the newer drugs and late-stage pipeline replace Eliquis revenue fast enough to keep profit and cash flow from shrinking after its patent expires?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Bull case

  • Growth portfolio breadth

    The bull case is that newer medicines are already large enough that their combined growth covers most of what generics take from the older portfolio each year.

  • Late-stage pipeline readouts

    It rests on approvals coming from the company's own pipeline in myeloma, pulmonary fibrosis and anticoagulation, which would add revenue independent of Eliquis.

  • Cost discipline and guidance

    Management has cut operating costs while raising guidance, so the company meets the Eliquis patent expiry with a lower expense base and more cash than a year ago.

  • Commercial execution record

    The company has beaten its own guidance repeatedly, which supports the claim that its commercial organization can launch new drugs quickly once they are approved.

Bear case

  • Eliquis patent expiry

    The bear case is that revenue depends heavily on Eliquis, whose U.S. patent expires soon, so the company must replace a large base while still building one.

  • Pipeline timeline slippage

    It points to pivotal trial dates moving later and to a schizophrenia launch that is growing slowly, which pushes the pipeline payoff further into the future.

  • Government price negotiation

    It argues that negotiated prices and large discounts already lowered what Eliquis earns, so cash generated before expiry is smaller than the sales line implies.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Newer drugs are growing faster than generics erode the legacy portfolio, while key readouts have slipped.

Bull · 2

  • Iberdomide filing accepted with priority review

    An approval in August would make it the first CELMoD on the market and let BMS replace Revlimid and Pomalyst in second-line myeloma with an oral drug it owns.

    Q2 FY2026 call

  • Guidance raised as legacy decline shrinks

    In February management projected a 12% to 16% legacy decline this year; it now expects 4% to 6% and has raised full-year revenue and adjusted earnings guidance.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026
Bear · 3

  • Milvexian and ADEPT readouts move to 2027

    Milvexian's atrial fibrillation data slipped from late 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, and Alzheimer's psychosis data for Cobenfy now begin in early 2027.

    Tone shiftQ1 FY2026 → Q2 FY2026

  • Cobenfy message shifts to fixing slow uptake

    A year ago management expected continued steady growth; it now says it must accelerate new patient starts and repeat prescribing, which points to slower-than-planned adoption.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • Opdivo declines as patients switch to Qvantig

    Opdivo revenue fell 2.9% to $2.5 billion as the subcutaneous version takes share of the same franchise, so conversion adds convenience but no net new sales.

    Filed financials

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Cost cuts hold the operating margin steady while gross margin falls on a shift toward Eliquis sales.

Bull · 2

  • Productivity program protects operating margin

    Operating margin was 31.0%, slightly above a year earlier, as savings from the productivity program offset spending behind new launches and the pumitamig program.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Debt paydown lowers interest burden

    Net debt fell to $32.1 billion from $35.6 billion a year earlier, cutting interest costs and leaving more cash for business development and the dividend.

    Filed financials
Bear · 2

  • Gross margin guided down on product mix

    Gross margin fell to 71.3% and management guides 2026 to 69% to 70%, because more Eliquis and less Revlimid and Pomalyst revenue carry lower profit per dollar.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Free cash flow falls as Eliquis price drops

    Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $11.4 billion against $14.6 billion a year earlier, partly because the Eliquis list price cut reduced collections.

    Q1 FY2026 call

Market Position

In short: Eliquis dominates U.S. anticoagulation, but its patent expires in 2028 and the government now sets its price.

Bull · 3

  • Eliquis price reset removes rebate penalties

    A roughly 40% list price cut combined with the Medicare negotiated price removed accumulated inflation rebates, helping Eliquis revenue rise 21.8% to $4.5 billion.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Milvexian would be the only Factor XI in AFib

    If approved it would face no other oral Factor XI drug in atrial fibrillation, and BMS can sell it through the Eliquis sales force as that brand loses exclusivity.

    Q1 FY2026 call

  • Admilparant could reset pulmonary fibrosis treatment

    It is a first-in-class LPA1 drug with phase two data showing better lung function and placebo-like tolerability, in a market management thinks could double in size.

    Q2 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Eliquis loses U.S. and European exclusivity

    Eliquis is 35% of segment revenue and its European patent expires late in 2026, after which generic entry typically produces steep and rapid sales declines.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-11

  • Medicare negotiation and discounting cap U.S. prices

    Eliquis and Pomalyst have both gone through government price negotiation, and management is still in talks with the administration on most-favored-nation pricing and tariffs.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-11