Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
Analysis
Bristol Myers Squibb has crossed over: its newer medicines now produce most of its sales while the older ones fade. The catch is timing — the drugs meant to replace Eliquis are still in testing, and their results have slipped into 2027. How much of BMY's revenue is protected beyond 2030?
- The growth portfolio now carries the company.
It grew 14% in Q2 FY2026 and now supplies nearly 60% of sales. Management cut its forecast decline for the older drugs to single digits from the low teens, so the handover to newer medicines is running ahead of plan. How concentrated is BMY's growth portfolio in its top few products?
- The fastest growth is coming from a drug about to lose protection.
Eliquis sales rose 21% and management raised its outlook on a US price cut that clears years of piled-up rebate penalties — a one-time gain. European patents lapse late this year, with a $1.5-2 billion step down guided for 2027.
- The drugs meant to replace Eliquis keep arriving later.
The milvexian atrial fibrillation study slipped to Q1 FY2027, and the Cobenfy Alzheimer's programme moved to early 2027. Management calls that reassuring — fewer strokes than expected — but replacements arrive as the current drugs fade. Which readouts now slated for 2027 matter most to BMY's growth?
- Growth portfolio breadthThe bull case is that newer medicines are already large enough that their combined growth covers most of what generics take from the older portfolio each year.
- Late-stage pipeline readoutsIt rests on approvals coming from the company's own pipeline in myeloma, pulmonary fibrosis and anticoagulation, which would add revenue independent of Eliquis.
- Cost discipline and guidanceManagement has cut operating costs while raising guidance, so the company meets the Eliquis patent expiry with a lower expense base and more cash than a year ago.
- Eliquis patent expiryThe bear case is that revenue depends heavily on Eliquis, whose U.S. patent expires soon, so the company must replace a large base while still building one.
- Pipeline timeline slippageIt points to pivotal trial dates moving later and to a schizophrenia launch that is growing slowly, which pushes the pipeline payoff further into the future.
- Government price negotiationIt argues that negotiated prices and large discounts already lowered what Eliquis earns, so cash generated before expiry is smaller than the sales line implies.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | Jun 23 | Aug 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$15K | Jun 12 | Aug 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$1K | May 18 | Jul 1 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | May 18 | Jul 1 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$15K | May 15 | Jul 1 |
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How Bristol-Myers Squibb Company turned $48.2B of revenue into $13.7B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Eliquis | $14.4B | ▲ 8.33% YoY |
| Opdivo | $10.0B | ▲ 8.01% YoY |
| Orencia | $3.7B | ▲ 0.62% YoY |
| Revlimid | $3.0B | ▼ 48.88% YoY |
| Yervoy | $2.9B | ▲ 14.62% YoY |
| Pomalyst/Imnovid | $2.7B | ▼ 22.91% YoY |
| Reblozyl | $2.3B | ▲ 31.25% YoY |
| Other Growth Brands | $1.9B | ▲ 19.88% YoY |
| Breyanzi | $1.4B | ▲ 81.79% YoY |
| Opdualag | $1.2B | ▲ 27.69% YoY |
| Camzyos | $1.1B | ▲ 77.41% YoY |
| Other Legacy Brands | $798.0M | ▼ 13.73% YoY |
| Zeposia | $577.0M | ▲ 1.94% YoY |
| Sprycel | $493.0M | ▼ 61.66% YoY |
| Abecma | $427.0M | ▲ 5.17% YoY |
| Abraxane | $368.0M | ▼ 57.94% YoY |
| Sotyktu | $291.0M | ▲ 18.29% YoY |
| Opdivo Ovantig | $238.0M | |
| Krazati | $205.0M | ▲ 62.70% YoY |
| Cobenfy | $155.0M | ▲ 1450.00% YoY |
| Total revenue | $48.2B | |
| Gross profit | $34.3B | 71.1% |
| Operating income | $13.7B | 28.5% |