ASML Holding N.V.

ASML · NASDAQ · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q3 FY2026

Across four calls ASML went from waiting for AI money to reach it to admitting it cannot build machines fast enough. Customers are now placing orders for 2029 and 2030 and ASML has raised prices for the first time, so its own factory, not demand, is the limit. Which customers are behind the interest in 2029 and 2030 orders?

  • The constraint moved from customer demand to ASML's own output.

    Customers are placing orders for 2029 and 2030, yet in Q3 management admitted planned output for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand. The limit is no longer whether chipmakers want tools, but whether ASML can build them. Where does ASML's output hit its real ceiling, its own lines or Zeiss optics?

  • Memory, not logic, is driving this cycle.

    DRAM buyers went from cautious to breaking ground almost weekly, and memory system sales are set to grow around 75% this year against about 10% for logic. Memory capacity gets bought in bulk, so the order book now rides on memory prices.

  • Record sales, but a lower gross margin ahead.

    Ramp spending hits now while the sales it pays for arrive later, so Q4 gross margin is guided down from 57.5%. That is why upgrades, which drove this year's upside, matter: if customers stop buying them, profit grows more slowly than sales. How much of installed-base revenue was upgrades rather than service this year?

Bullish
  • AI capacity buildout
    The bull case is that AI spending has moved from announcements to actual fab construction, so chipmakers are ordering lithography tools years ahead of delivery.
  • Order book extends years
    Customers are committing to orders well beyond the next year, giving ASML unusual visibility for an equipment maker and letting it plan output increases in advance.
  • Rising lithography intensity
    Advanced logic and DRAM need more EUV and immersion layers per wafer, so ASML's sales rise faster than the number of wafers the industry produces.
Bearish
  • Chipmaker capital spending cycle
    The bear case is that ASML still sells capital equipment, and orders collapse when chipmakers stop building, as they did in the last two downturns.
  • High-NA adoption timing
    The next-generation High-NA tool is still being qualified, and the largest foundry does not plan to use it in volume production until 2030.
  • Ramp and fab readiness
    Output must rise every quarter and customers must finish their fabs on schedule, and a slip in either turns strong demand into deferred revenue.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Sale≥$1KAug 14Sep 4
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$50KMar 30Jul 21
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$1KMar 31Jul 21
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KJun 12Jul 6
Michael T. McCaul
Republican · House · TX-10
Sale≥$1KApr 17May 4

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · EUR

How ASML Holding N.V. turned €32.7B of revenue into €11.3B of operating income.

Revenue
NXE€10.4B▲ 32.96% YoY
ArF immersion€10.3B
Net service and field option sales€8.2B
EXE€1.2B▲ 148.80% YoY
KrF€1.0B
Metrology & Inspection€824.6M
ArF dry€427.0M
I-line€307.3M
Total revenue€32.7B
Gross profit€17.3B52.8%
Operating income€11.3B34.6%
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