Amcor plc

Amcor spent its first year as a combined company buying growth it could not yet sell: cost cuts and merger savings lifted earnings 13% while volumes fell all year, and the fourth-quarter volume turn is what decides whether calendar 2027 is real growth or just more cost cutting.How much of 2027 earnings growth is already locked in by savings?

• Volumes only turned positive in the final quarter.

  Volumes fell for three quarters, then Q4 delivered roughly 1% growth and July held that pace. That is the first sign the market, not Amcor, was doing the damage, and the one part of the story management does not control.Which of the six focus categories drove the Q4 volume turn?

• Savings from the Berry merger beat every target management set.

  The year opened with a promise of at least $260 million in savings and closed with $285 million delivered. Those savings land in overheads and purchasing, so profit rises even when customers buy no more than last year.How much of the $650 million savings total is left to collect?

• Keeping customers supplied cost Amcor about $500 million in cash.

  Resin prices spiked and management chose to hold more inventory rather than leave customers short. Free cash flow came in near $1.3 billion against a plan of about $1.9 billion, so the debt paydown now depends on that cash coming back.