Aflac Incorporated

AFL · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Aflac's Japan sales push is working, but the money has not arrived: sales still do not outrun the policies lapsing each year, and the U.S. core individual block is flat. The new answer is reinsurance and more buybacks. How far is Aflac Japan from the sales level that stops premium shrinking?

  • Japan's product overhaul is rebuilding sales, not premium.

    Japan sales rose double digits again in the first half after the 2025 sales overhaul, but underlying earned premiums still fall each year: management says sales must reach about JPY 90 billion just to replace the policies lapsing out.

  • Reinsurance is becoming a real second business in Japan.

    Aflac raised the Japan risk it can move to Bermuda from 10% of assets to 30% of reserves, then took its first outside block from Japan Post. Management says such deals free capital and add risks it does not carry much of today. How much capital could Aflac free by reinsuring more of its Japan book?

  • Growth is arriving through products that pay out more.

    The U.S. now grows mainly through group lines that pay out more, and Aflac trimmed 2026 premium growth to just below its earlier 3% to 6% range. In Japan, fewer older policies lapse, so the payout ratio sits at the top of its range. How much of Aflac U.S. sales now come from brokers rather than agents?

Bullish
  • Japan product sales momentum
    The bull case is that three concurrent Japan product launches are rebuilding sales in a market where Aflac already holds a large, persistent in-force block.
  • U.S. group benefits growth
    Group dental, life and disability sales in the U.S. are growing fast enough to offset the shrinking traditional individual block and lift earned premiums.
  • Share repurchase capacity
    Heavy buybacks shrink the share count while strong solvency ratios leave room to keep repurchasing stock and raising the dividend.
Bearish
  • Japan earned premium runoff
    The bear case is that Japan sales growth has not reversed the decline in earned premiums, because lapses and paid-up policies still outrun new sales.
  • Rising benefit ratios
    Benefit ratios are drifting higher in both segments as product mix shifts toward group life and disability and fewer older policies lapse.
  • U.S. traditional block decline
    The traditional U.S. individual voluntary block keeps shrinking as brokers move to group products, leaving overall U.S. premium growth short of the company's own range.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KJan 21May 13
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Sale≥$1KAug 10Sep 4
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$1KMar 27Jul 21
Ro Khanna
Democratic · House · CA-17
Purchase≥$1KMar 23Apr 7

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

See all
Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Aflac Incorporated turned $17.2B of revenue into $4.8B of operating income.

Revenue
Aflac Japan$9.4B▼ 3.13% YoY
Aflac US$6.9B▲ 2.43% YoY
Other Segments$1.3B▲ 26.81% YoY
Total revenue$17.2B
Operating income$4.8B27.7%
See all