Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated

PEG · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

PSEG is turning New Jersey's power shortage into its growth plan: it raised its long-term earnings target to 6% to 8% through 2030 and lifted the dividend again, with nuclear cash and a bigger regulated building program paying for it. How much of the raised target comes from nuclear rather than the grid?

  • The regulated building program got bigger, and the growth promise with it.

    Management raised the five-year capital plan and, for a second straight year, its long-term growth target, now 6% to 8% through 2030. It can fund the whole plan without selling new shares, so today's owners keep the full benefit.

  • Nuclear turned from a safety floor into a source of extra profit.

    Power prices clear above the floor that guarantees the reactors a minimum return. Anything above it falls straight to profit, and management is in talks on multiyear deals to sell output, which would be growth on top of the plan. How much nuclear output is already locked in for 2027 and 2028?

  • The cost of the build arrives before the rates that pay for it.

    Interest expense is climbing, and a federal change costs it about $40 million a year from 2027. PSEG is filing a base rate case this year, years early, because today's rates recover older costs, so it spends before it earns. How much does a delay in new rates cost PSEG each quarter it slips?

Bullish
  • Regulated rate base growth
    The bull case rests on a regulated capital program that earns an allowed return and grows rate base each year, so earnings depend on construction pace rather than power prices.
  • Nuclear output scarcity value
    PJM capacity supply sits below its reliability target, so the nuclear fleet sells output near the top of the allowed price range and cash flow stays strong.
  • State support for new nuclear
    New Jersey legislation and a state nuclear procurement give the Salem site a route to new generation revenue without PSEG taking the full project risk.
Bearish
  • New Jersey data center interest
    Large-load interest is real but few projects reach contract, and without state incentives the biggest customers site their data centers in Pennsylvania instead.
  • Price collar caps power revenue
    The allowed price band in PJM sits far below what an uncapped auction would clear, so the nuclear fleet cannot capture the full value of the regional shortage.
  • Rising debt and interest costs
    A debt-funded capital plan lifts net debt and interest expense every year, which offsets part of the earnings growth the new investment is meant to produce.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$50KAug 28Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KAug 24Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$100KAug 21Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KAug 10Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$15KJul 23Sep 22

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated turned $12.2B of revenue into $3.0B of operating income.

Revenue
Public Service Electric and Gas Company$4.9B▲ 22.15% YoY
Gas Distribution Contracts$2.5B▲ 19.52% YoY
Transmission$1.8B▲ 1.43% YoY
Other Contract Revenues$1.1B▲ 7.40% YoY
Natural Gas$353.0M▲ 71.36% YoY
Total revenue$12.2B
Gross profit$8.0B65.8%
Operating income$3.0B24.5%
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