ONEOK, Inc.

OKE · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

ONEOK spent three years buying and building, and 2026 is when the pieces start paying off — guidance raised twice and a new multi-year growth target in place. The catch: the biggest one-off lift this year is a gas price gap that is closing. How much of the 2026 guidance raise came from that gas price gap?

  • Guidance was raised twice, and a multi-year growth target arrived with it.

    Guidance was raised twice this year, the latest putting 2026 earnings $250 million above the original plan. Committing to mid-to-high single-digit growth for five to seven years means higher volumes every year, not better commodity prices.

  • The next leg of growth needs almost no new spending.

    Permian processing capacity heads to 2.4 billion cubic feet a day, and the West Texas NGL line has room for 300,000 more barrels a day, so extra barrels move through pipes already built. That is why spending can fall while earnings rise. How much of the West Texas NGL line is still unbooked?

  • The biggest lift this year is a price gap that is closing.

    The West Texas-to-Gulf Coast gas price gap added $150 million last year and should narrow as new pipelines start up in the second half. Add hedging that capped higher prices, and the back half leans on volumes that have not appeared yet. What volume would replace the West Texas-to-Gulf Coast price gap?

Bullish
  • Integrated multi-molecule platform
    The bull case is that owning pipelines, processing plants, fractionation and export docks across four products lets ONEOK earn fees from many basins rather than one.
  • Projects built ahead of contracts
    Recently finished and near-finished projects were built ahead of the contracts they serve, so the volumes they add should reach the bottom line with little extra spending.
  • Raised guidance and growth target
    Management has replaced a withheld outlook with a stated multi-year growth target and raised full-year guidance twice, which the bull side reads as improving visibility.
Bearish
  • Producer drilling dependence
    The bear case is that ONEOK still earns most of its money from fees on volumes producers choose to ship, and lower crude prices have already trimmed drilling plans.
  • Location spread earnings fade
    A meaningful part of recent profit came from regional price differences that close as new pipelines are built, so the natural gas pipeline segment is guided lower.
  • Margin dilution from commodity sales
    Sales growth has come with weaker margins, because a large share of the added revenue is commodity-linked liquids marketing rather than fee-based transport.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMay 15Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMar 17May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 12May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KJan 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$50KJan 12May 13

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How ONEOK turned $33.6B of revenue into $5.7B of operating income.

Revenue
Liquids Commodity$25.6B
Residue Natural Gas Sales$3.3B
Transportation and Storage$3.1B
Exchange Services and Natural Gas Gathering and Processing$1.5B
Other$144.0M
Total revenue$33.6B
Gross profit$10.3B30.5%
Operating income$5.7B17.1%
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