Nucor Corporation

NUE · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Six years and about $20 billion of building are turning from spending into selling: record shipments, record backlogs, and free cash flow positive again. West Virginia, the last big project, lands its costs before its steel, so 2027 has to be the year the plan starts paying. How does the current margin compare with the last upcycle?

  • The spending phase is ending and cash is turning back up.

    Capital spending drops to about $2.5 billion this year from $3.4 billion, and free cash flow turned positive last quarter. That frees cash for dividends and deals instead of the build. How does 2026 free cash flow compare with Nucor's best years?

  • Tariffs handed domestic mills a market imports used to hold.

    Import share of U.S. finished steel fell from about a quarter a year ago to roughly 15%, the lowest in management's 30 years. That is around five million tons now served by domestic mills, without winning it on price.

  • West Virginia's costs keep landing before its revenue.

    The mill commissions this year, but commercial shipments start in early 2027 and it will not run at half capacity until the end of that year. Start-up costs stay near $120 million a quarter, dragging on earnings before the mill pays off. How much of the West Virginia ramp depends on automotive qualifications?

Bullish
  • Falling import share of demand
    The bull case is that trade enforcement has lowered the share of American steel demand met by imports, so domestic mills set price off home supply rather than world prices.
  • Data center and construction demand
    A multiyear construction, energy and data center buildout is pulling steel and downstream products at the same time, and Nucor sells nearly every steel piece a data center shell needs.
  • New capacity already built
    Much of the new capacity is finished and ramping, so the same assets should produce more tons and more cash without a matching rise in spending, which supports returns to shareholders.
Bearish
  • New mill needs tonnage
    The bear case is that Nucor is adding sheet capacity into ordinary demand, so the new West Virginia mill fights the company's existing mills for orders before it earns a return.
  • Soft consumer end markets
    Demand outside infrastructure, energy and data centers is still weak in housing, heavy equipment, agriculture and automotive consumption, so industry steel use barely grows.
  • Import rebound in beams
    Imports have started rising again in beams and sheet, which erodes the pricing protection U.S. producers currently get and arrives while Nucor is trying to fill new mills.
See the full bull & bear case
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KMar 17May 13
Alan Armstrong
Republican · Senate · OK
Purchase≥$1KMar 27Jul 21
Michael T. McCaul
Republican · House · TX-10
Sale≥$15KMay 12Jun 10
Julia Letlow
Republican · House · LA-5
Purchase≥$1KOct 23Jan 13

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

See all
Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Nucor turned $32.5B of revenue into $2.7B of operating income.

Revenue
Sheet$9.2B▼ 0.99% YoY
Bar$5.7B▲ 10.27% YoY
Steel Products$3.5B▲ 2.35% YoY
Structural$2.6B▲ 15.64% YoY
Plate$2.5B▲ 23.37% YoY
Raw Materials$2.2B▲ 13.00% YoY
Rebar Fabrication$1.9B▲ 7.48% YoY
Tubular Products$1.4B▲ 10.60% YoY
Total revenue$32.5B
Gross profit$3.9B11.9%
Operating income$2.7B8.2%
See all