Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC has moved from a story about high fuel prices to a story about execution: capture above 100% for six straight quarters, on a crude slate rivals cannot match. The profit is real, but the war-driven supply gap behind it is not something the company controls. How much of the buyback comes from refining rather than the midstream payout?

• Capture, not market pricing, became the earnings story.

  Capture ran 105% in 2025 and 108% in the first half of 2026 on choices management calls its own: record Canadian heavy, doubled Venezuelan volumes. The edge comes from its plants, not the market, so it holds when margins narrow. How much of the capture gain comes from cheaper crude versus higher yields?

• Jet, not new capacity, is where the money goes.

  Garyville added 30,000 barrels a day of jet capacity in Q1 and Robinson another 10,000 in Q2. Management targets 25% returns, and because the units can switch back to diesel, MPC earns the jet premium without betting a refinery on it. How much of the jet capacity can be switched back to diesel if the spread closes?

• Much of the gain came from a war, not from MPC.

  Management puts 9 million barrels a day of the world's refining capacity out of action, about 4 million more than normal. That is what widened the margins. If it comes back, profit per barrel falls even if every plant runs perfectly.