The Mosaic Company

MOS · NYSE · USD

The debate turns on whether sulfur supply and cost normalize before two seasons of phosphate under-application permanently shrink demand and Mosaic's cash flow.

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Bull case

  • Phosphate supply stays short

    Global phosphate supply stays short as China restricts exports and little new capacity is built, so Mosaic's tonnes find buyers even when farmers push back on price.

  • Potash carries the earnings

    Potash supply and demand are balanced, Esterhazy's expansion lowers unit costs and Canpotex is sold out, giving steady cash while phosphate is curtailed.

  • Raw material access beats peers

    Mosaic buys most sulfur molten from U.S. Gulf refineries and most ammonia from its own plant or gas-linked contracts, so it runs when competitors cannot.

  • New businesses scale up

    Biosciences is doubling sales each year at high gross margins, and rare earth recovery from phosphogypsum could add a new revenue stream from existing waste.

Bear case

  • Sulfur sets the production level

    Sulfur availability and price, not phosphate demand, now decide how much Mosaic produces, and management idles plants rather than buy raw material at spot.

  • Nutrient under-application

    Farmers in North America and Brazil have cut phosphate application for two seasons, shrinking the demand base Mosaic's idled volumes would return to.

  • Free cash flow and leverage

    Working capital and heavy capital spending have left free cash flow negative and net debt higher, so buybacks stay deferred until the balance sheet improves.

  • Brazil credit conditions

    Brazilian growers face tight credit and high interest rates, so Mosaic sells less through Fertilizantes and has idled plants making low-margin single superphosphate.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Potash and Biosciences keep growing while phosphate output is deliberately cut back to conserve sulfur.

Bull · 2

  • Potash volume holds near record with falling unit costs

    Management expects to produce around 9 million tonnes of potash again in 2026 even after selling Carlsbad, and Esterhazy's HydroFloat project lowers unit costs, so potash keeps earning while phosphate output is cut.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Biosciences doubles sales through the farm downturn

    Mosaic expects Biosciences revenue to double again in 2026 with eight to ten product launches and registrations in sixteen countries, giving it a higher-margin business that depends on neither sulfur supply nor phosphate prices.

    Q1 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Guidance moved from full recovery to deliberate curtailment

    A year ago management said it was committed to getting phosphate back to full rates with no wavering; by the latest call it had taken the Louisiana plant fully offline and cut runs at Bartow to preserve low-cost sulfur.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • Phosphate application has fallen two seasons running

    North American phosphate application fell sharply last year and is guided down again this year, with Brazil down by a similar amount, which shrinks the demand base the idled capacity is meant to serve.

    Q2 FY2026 call

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Cost programs are delivering, but sulfur inflation and working capital have turned free cash flow negative.

Bull · 2

  • Cost savings targets are being met ahead of plan

    Mosaic finished its initial savings target early, committed to another $100 million in 2026 and added a support-function workforce reduction, which offsets part of the fixed cost left unabsorbed by idled plants.

    Q1 FY2026 call

  • Phosphate conversion cost fell as repairs normalized

    Fourth quarter cash conversion cost was $112 per tonne versus a high watermark earlier in the year, and management ties further declines to running more tonnes, so restarting idled plants lowers unit cost rather than raising it.

    Q4 FY2025 call
Bear · 2

  • Sulfur forecast flipped from easing to unsustainably high

    In February management expected sulfur prices to improve through the year; by August it described spot sulfur as unsustainably high and said the contract it signed for third quarter supply, while below spot, is still historically expensive.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • Shareholder returns pushed out behind debt reduction

    Free cash flow was negative $947 million over the last twelve months, so the buybacks and special dividends management once expected to resume in 2026 are again deprioritized, with cash outlays running ahead of operating cash flow this year.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

Market Position

In short: Own sulfur and ammonia supply support costs, while global trade policy and Brazilian credit set the risk.

Bull · 2

  • Gulf Coast sulfur and own ammonia undercut spot buyers

    Most U.S. sulfur arrives molten from nearby Gulf refineries and most ammonia comes from Mosaic's own plant or gas-linked contracts, so the company keeps producing profitably when competitors depend on scarce seaborne spot cargoes.

    Q1 FY2026 call

  • U.S. phosphate duties look likely to stay in place

    The Commerce Department found the subsidized pricing that justified countervailing duties remains in Morocco and Russia and the trade court reaffirmed injury, which limits import competition in Mosaic's home market once the current suspension ends.

    Q2 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Phosphate earnings swing hard with the fertilizer cycle

    Revenue fell 41.8% between FY2022 and FY2024 while operating margin dropped from 25.0% to 5.6%, and the current sulfur curtailment shows how quickly raw material costs can move results again.

    Filed financials

  • Brazil credit stress shrinks the Fertilizantes base

    Fertilizantes revenue fell 12.0% year on year as Brazilian growers face tight credit, and Mosaic stopped guiding that segment's volumes while it idles Brazilian plants, so more than a third of segment revenue is running well below capacity.

    Q4 FY2025 call