MGM Resorts International
Analysis
MGM's bet that Macau, BetMGM and Europe could carry the company when Las Vegas couldn't has become the business, and the Strip is now growing again on top of it. What comes next depends on whether that growth is real or borrowed from a lucky quarter. How much of revenue now comes from China rather than the US?
- The growth now comes from outside Las Vegas.
Macau set record earnings and holds 16% share, BetMGM turned from burning cash to paying the parent $135 million, and together they lifted group revenue 6% in 2025 while the Strip fell. A weak Vegas quarter no longer decides the year.
- Las Vegas has started growing again.
The Strip grew revenue for two straight quarters, and in Q2 FY2026 earnings rose too, helped by the rebuilt MGM Grand rooms and record second-quarter convention rates. Easier comparisons start now, so the recovery should be visible. How does revenue growth compare with Caesars and Boyd this year?
- New costs are landing no matter how busy the casinos are.
A jump in lawsuit-related insurance reserves cost $37 million in Las Vegas, and Macau's higher brand fee moved $23 million out of that segment's profit. Neither follows how full the hotels are, so less of each dollar reaches profit. What has the operating margin done over the past three years?
- Cash from Macau and BetMGMThe bull case is that Macau, the regional casinos and BetMGM now generate their own cash, so results no longer rest on one market or one type of customer.
- Group and convention bookingsGroup and convention demand is booked well ahead, giving Las Vegas a more predictable base and letting management price rooms around events instead of discounting them.
- Losses shrinking in digitalDigital operations are still losing money but the loss is shrinking as the European betting brands scale, and management expects that business to help fund itself.
- Weak Las Vegas value demandThe bear case is that the lower-priced end of the Las Vegas portfolio and international visitors have not recovered, so occupancy and room rates stay under pressure.
- Fixed rent and insurance costsRent on the buildings MGM sold and rising self-insurance costs are fixed or hard to control, so more of each revenue dollar goes to landlords and insurers.
- Dependence on Macau regulatorsA large share of profit comes from Macau, where the government sets the terms of the concession and can change taxes, fees or licensing in ways MGM cannot control.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alan Armstrong Republican · Senate · OK | Purchase | ≥$1K | Mar 27 | Jul 21 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | May 15 | Jun 9 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | Feb 24 | Mar 9 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Sale | ≥$1K | Sep 29 | Oct 3 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | Aug 26 | Sep 9 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How MGM Resorts International turned $17.5B of revenue into $1.0B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Casino | $9.5B | ▲ 7.57% YoY |
| Occupancy | $3.4B | ▼ 8.26% YoY |
| Food And Beverage | $3.0B | ▼ 1.06% YoY |
| Entertainment Retail And Other | $1.7B | ▼ 1.84% YoY |
| Total revenue | $17.5B | |
| Gross profit | $7.8B | 44.4% |
| Operating income | $1.0B | 5.7% |