Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Analysis
Las Vegas Sands has become a Singapore story with a Macau repair job attached: Marina Bay Sands keeps beating management's own forecasts, while Macau spends to win share it has not yet turned into profit. How much of group EBITDA comes from Singapore versus Macau?
- Singapore is the engine, and it is still short of space.
Marina Bay Sands is running past the $2.5 billion a year management had called ambitious, and it is short of room for the customers it draws. Growth now waits on the $8 billion expansion opening early 2031.
- Macau is buying volume share faster than it earns profit.
Macau's 2025 marketing change won share, but margins still fell and a 1.35% hold quarter cost $87 million. The $700 million goal keeps sliding, so spending lands before the earnings. What did Macau margins look like before the 2025 change?
- Buybacks now cost more than the business generates in cash.
Buybacks in the first half of FY2026 came to $1.5 billion against $887 million of free cash flow; the rest came from cash on hand. The authorization is now $6 billion, so share count moves results as much as the casinos do.
- Macau reaches the $700 million quarterly EBITDA management keeps targeting. Then the group stops depending on Singapore alone, and the suites and service it has paid for start earning their keep.
- Macau payroll and reinvestment stop climbing while gaming revenue keeps rising. More of each extra dollar of play turns into profit instead of free rooms and rebates, so margins stop falling.
- Marina Bay Sands keeps filling its suites while the $8 billion expansion is built. The strongest asset pays for the Macau rebuild from its own cash, so the company does not need to borrow to keep going.
- One bad hold quarter keeps wiping out a chunk of Macau's profit. A handful of very large players decide how a quarter looks, so profit swings hard while the business is unchanged.
- Base mass never returns and all Macau growth stays in the premium tiers. Revenue keeps rising while margins do not, because these customers cost the most to bring in and keep.
- The Venetian renovation takes 400 to 500 rooms out of service for two years. Rooms that earn money today are closed to build rooms that earn money later, so Macau profit stays low until 2028.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$50K | May 18 | Jul 1 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | Aug 10 | Sep 4 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | Jun 30 | Jul 6 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Sale | ≥$1K | May 15 | Jun 9 |
Ro Khanna Democratic · House · CA-17 | Purchase | ≥$1K | Jan 29 | Feb 6 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How Las Vegas Sands turned $13.0B of revenue into $2.8B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Casino | $9.8B | ▲ 17.90% YoY |
| Mall | $801.0M | ▲ 6.09% YoY |
| Food and Beverage | $644.0M | ▲ 6.10% YoY |
| Total revenue | $13.0B | |
| Gross profit | $6.5B | 49.8% |
| Operating income | $2.8B | 21.6% |