Fortinet, Inc.

FTNT · NASDAQ · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Fortinet's growth re-accelerated in the first half of FY2026 as AI data centre builds and critical-infrastructure upgrades pulled firewalls, SASE and industrial security through one operating system. But the recurring services that pay most of the bills still lag far behind.How much of the pickup is AI data centre spend versus the normal refresh cycle?

  • The firewall business is growing like a brand new product.

    Ken Xie sells firewalls and SASE as one product, a SASE Firewall, that passed $2 billion in billings and grew 34% last quarter. Because one box covers a data centre and a shop floor, rivals with separate boxes need two deals to match one.How much of the SASE Firewall growth comes from existing firewall customers?

  • Recurring services finally stopped getting worse, and the guidance hangs on it.

    Service revenue growth fell for nine quarters before management called Q1 FY2026 the trough; Q2 hit 14% with service billings up 26%. Services are most of the revenue, so until they catch up the company grows more slowly than demand.

  • Part of the product surge is a price rise it plans to give back.

    Memory costs pushed appliance prices up, and management built a high-single-digit price effect into second-half billings. Xie says the aim is to hold margin, not widen it, and to cut prices when costs fall, so part of that 52% can unwind.How much of second-half billings growth comes from the price increases?

Bullish
  • Single operating system platform
    The bull case is that firewall, SD-WAN and SASE now run on one operating system and one appliance, so Fortinet can serve deals that rivals need several separate products to cover.
  • AI traffic drives segmentation
    Customers building AI environments need far more internal segmentation and throughput, which plays to Fortinet's own security chips rather than to software-only competitors.
  • Installed base upgrade path
    Growth comes largely from converting an existing firewall and SD-WAN base into SASE and security operations, so the company sells more into accounts it already controls.
Bearish
  • Acceleration led by hardware
    The bear case is that the acceleration is hardware-led, helped by memory-driven price increases and an AI build-out, and hardware demand is the first thing that slows.
  • Services attach lags hardware
    Support and subscription revenue is recognised over years and still trails product growth, so the profit mix improves more slowly than the headline numbers suggest.
  • Concentrated supply chain
    Almost all sales run through distributors and most hardware is assembled in Taiwan, so a single partner problem or a cross-strait disruption can interrupt shipments.
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Donald Trump
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Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
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Donald Trump
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Sale≥$15KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
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Sale≥$15KMar 18May 13

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Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Fortinet turned $6.8B of revenue into $2.1B of operating income.

Revenue
Security Subscription$2.6B▲ 13.66% YoY
Product$2.2B▲ 16.23% YoY
Technical Support and Other$1.9B▲ 12.58% YoY
Total revenue$6.8B
Gross profit$5.5B80.5%
Operating income$2.1B30.7%