FirstEnergy has stopped fixing itself and started building: a $36 billion five-year plan, growing with every data center that signs, paid for up front with borrowed money and recovered later through rate cases that affordability politics now decides. How much of the contracted data center load has a signed service agreement?
The investment plan keeps growing, and data centers are the reason.
The five-year plan was lifted to $36 billion, with about $250 million of transmission spending for each gigawatt of load that signs. Formula rates recover that work, not rate cases, so it reaches earnings faster than anything else here. Which states hold most of the un-contracted data center pipeline?
Growth this year arrives almost entirely in the second half.
Core earnings rose 2.5% in the first half, and reaching the guidance midpoint needs the second half up about 10%. Management says that was always the plan, but it leaves the year resting on the next two quarters arriving on schedule.
The building happens years before customers pay for it.
Capital spending ran $4.7 billion in 2025 against $3.7 billion of cash from operations, and the gap was borrowed, lifting total debt about 18% in six quarters. Regulators decide how much of that spending is ever recovered. What share of the five-year capital plan is recovered through formula rates?
Bullish
West Virginia approves the gas plant this autumn. The company gets paid while it builds, so the plant lifts earnings years before it produces any power.
Contracted data center load keeps converting out of the pipeline. Each gigawatt that signs is wiring FirstEnergy can charge for, so growth arrives without waiting on a rate case.
Rate cases in four states land close to what was requested. Earning near its allowed return keeps profit growth at the top of the company's range instead of sliding to the bottom.
Bearish
Regulators facing angry customers grant less than the investments cost. FirstEnergy still spends the money but earns less on it, so the build brings back less than planned.
The data centers still in the pipeline never sign contracts. Wires built for customers who never arrive leave today's customers paying for equipment nobody uses.
Debt is up about 18% and up to $2 billion of new shares are planned. The same profit gets split among more owners, so each owner's share of the growth is smaller.
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
Politician
Transaction
Amount
Traded
Filed
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase
≥$15K
Jun 12
Aug 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase
≥$1K
May 15
Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale
≥$15K
May 11
Jul 1
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase
≥$15K
Mar 2
May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase
≥$1K
Jan 23
May 13
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD
How FirstEnergy turned $15.1B of revenue into $2.2B of operating income.