Exelon Corporation
Analysis
Exelon's growth has stopped being about local grid upgrades. It is now about transmission and about supplying the power its states are short of — both of which hinge on regulators agreeing to pay for it. Which states are furthest along in letting utilities build and own generation?
- The growth engine moved from local wires to long-distance transmission.
Transmission is now growing about twice as fast as the rest of the business, and about 70% of the bigger four-year capital plan goes there. Federal rates set the return, so no state commission can turn it down. Which transmission projects in the plan are already won, and which are still bids?
- Affordability pressure forced Exelon to pull back in Pennsylvania.
PECO pulled its Pennsylvania rate cases, and the plan defers $1.1 billion of work there and at BGE, moving it into transmission. Management calls it "a different plan for a different moment" — less spending now, better odds later. How much capital did Exelon pull out of Pennsylvania, and where did it go?
- Exelon wants to build the power plants its states are missing.
PJM keeps running short of power, and Exelon wants to own the storage that fills the gap — a 500-megawatt battery in New Jersey worth about $1 billion, not yet in the plan. It goes up in about three years, far faster than a plant.
- Transmission rate base keeps compounding at 16% through 2029. Federal rates set that return rather than state commissions, so this growth is much harder for a governor to block.
- The data-center pipeline keeps converting into signed agreements. Those deals are backed by customer money put down in advance, so the building is paid for by the demand that commits.
- Cost control keeps customer bills roughly flat. Keeping the company's share of the bill steady is what buys regulators' goodwill for the next rate case.
- States keep refusing the rates Exelon asks for. If commissions won't let it earn on what it spends, the grid work slows and the growth it counts on never arrives.
- The data-center pipeline shrinks again instead of converting. The company builds ahead of the demand, so load that never shows up leaves customers paying for equipment nobody uses.
- PJM stays short on power and no state allows utility-owned generation. Supply stays scarce and bills keep climbing, which makes the affordability fight that already cost a rate case harder.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | Aug 10 | Oct 8 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$50K | Jun 12 | Aug 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$1K | May 18 | Jul 1 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$1K | May 15 | Jul 1 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$50K | May 11 | Jul 1 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How Exelon turned $24.3B of revenue into $5.1B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth Edison Co | $7.3B | ▼ 11.58% YoY |
| Pepco Holdings LLC | $7.1B | ▲ 10.65% YoY |
| Baltimore Gas and Electric Company | $5.2B | ▲ 17.98% YoY |
| PECO Energy Co | $4.7B | ▲ 17.90% YoY |
| Delmarva Power and Light Company | $2.0B | ▲ 10.30% YoY |
| Atlantic City Electric Company | $1.7B | ▲ 5.53% YoY |
| Corporate Segment and Other Operating Segment | $424.0M | ▼ 3.20% YoY |
| Total revenue | $24.3B | |
| Gross profit | $6.8B | 27.9% |
| Operating income | $5.1B | 21.2% |