CME Group Inc.

CME · NASDAQ · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q3 FY2026

CME turned record trading volume into something more durable: a data subscription business growing about 20% a year. Now it is paying for the next wave — round-the-clock markets, single stock and compute futures, Treasury clearing — before any of it earns. How much of CME's revenue is now subscriptions rather than trading?

  • Record volume now rests on breadth, not one hot market.

    In Q1 every asset class set a record at the same time — a first — and Q3 grew volume by double digits in all of them again, with international up 22%. A quiet month in rates no longer sinks a quarter.

  • Data is turning into a second, steadier business.

    Market data has grown for 34 quarters straight and accelerated to 20% in Q2 2026 while trading fees slipped, a third of it from retail and simulated-trading accounts. That money arrives whether or not anyone needs to hedge. How does CME's data growth compare with its trading revenue growth?

  • The next product wave is being paid for before it earns.

    2026 expense guidance of $1.695 billion carries round-the-clock trading, securities clearing and event contracts. Spending ran 7% above last year with Dallas and the cloud still ramping, so one regulator's delay stretches the payback. What has happened to CME's operating margin as this spending ramped?

Bullish
  • Volatility and hedging demand
    The bull case is that global uncertainty keeps driving institutions to hedge, so volume and open interest keep setting records across every asset class.
  • Capital efficiency offsets
    Cross-margining savings are the reason clients keep futures, swaps and cash at CME, and management keeps adding offsets that are hard to replicate elsewhere.
  • New product launches
    New contracts in single stocks, compute capacity and round-the-clock metals and crypto are meant to pull new customers into markets CME already dominates.
Bearish
  • Volume-dependent revenue
    The bear case is that nearly all revenue comes from trading activity, so any stretch of calm markets or a shift in how clients trade lowers volume and fees together.
  • Rate per contract pressure
    Volume tiering, more small contracts and a larger share of member trading keep pushing the average fee per contract lower even in record quarters.
  • Perpetuals and prediction venues
    Offshore leveraged products and app-based prediction markets are chasing the same retail traders, and management's answer so far is to defend the institutional base.
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KAug 17Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$1KAug 10Oct 8
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KJul 31Sep 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KJul 24Sep 22
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Sale≥$50KJul 23Sep 22

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How CME Group turned $6.5B of revenue into $4.2B of operating income.

Revenue
clearing and transaction fees$5.3B▲ 5.87% YoY
MarketData$803.1M▲ 13.08% YoY
OtherRevenue$436.4M▲ 1.09% YoY
Total revenue$6.5B
Gross profit$5.6B86.1%
Operating income$4.2B64.9%