Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

CBOE · CBOE · USD

Can Cboe keep compounding index-options and data revenue fast enough to offset fee pressure in multi-list options and the revenue lost from businesses it is exiting?

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Bull case

  • Index options franchise

    The bull case rests on Cboe's proprietary index options, where retail adoption of same-day contracts keeps volumes compounding faster than the wider options market.

  • Data Vantage subscriptions

    A second leg comes from selling market data and access to brokers worldwide, growth that comes from new customers rather than price increases and repeats each year.

  • Cost reduction program

    Management is cutting headcount and exiting peripheral exchanges, and argues the savings fund investment in derivatives, data and new event contracts.

  • Event contract expansion

    The longer-term bet is that regulated, exchange-traded event contracts on indexes and company metrics become a new market that Cboe is positioned to run.

Bear case

  • Trading volume dependence

    The bear case is that almost all profit comes from trading fees, so revenue rises and falls with volatility and retail activity rather than with management's plans.

  • Multi-list competition

    In multi-list options, where contracts are interchangeable, new exchanges keep entering and cutting prices, so Cboe must spend to defend share it cannot easily grow.

  • Customer concentration

    A small group of market makers and clearing firms supplies most of the revenue, giving them leverage over fees and making results sensitive to any one of them leaving.

  • License renewal risk

    The most valuable products depend on licensing agreements with index owners, and those agreements may not be renewed on exclusive terms when they come up for renewal.

Bull and bear points

Growth & Execution

In short: Index options and data sales grow fast, but fee revenue still depends on volatility and retail activity.

Bull · 3

  • Revenue guidance raised twice in 2026

    Management entered 2026 guiding to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and has since lifted that to the mid-to-high teens, a sign that trading volumes, data sales and pricing are all tracking above the original plan.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • Data Vantage outlook lifted to low teens

    Data Vantage was long framed as a mid-to-high single-digit grower; management now expects low-teens growth as brokers outside the U.S. buy access to Cboe's options markets and proprietary index data.

    Tone shiftQ4 FY2025 → Q2 FY2026

  • Same-day index options set more records

    SPX and Mini-SPX volumes reached records again in the second quarter, helped by wider retail access and the repeal of the pattern day trader rule, so the most profitable product line keeps growing faster than the wider options market.

    Q2 FY2026 call
Bear · 2

  • Twenty exchanges compete in multi-list options

    Cboe expects the number of exchanges trading multi-list options to reach twenty, which limits what it can charge and forces continued spending on rebates and incentives to defend its share of that volume.

    Q4 FY2025 call

  • Futures revenue flat without volatility spikes

    The futures segment earns its fees from VIX trading, so revenue barely moved in a calm quarter even as other segments grew quickly, showing how much that slice depends on market stress rather than on Cboe's sales effort.

    Q2 FY2026 call

Profitability & Financial Strength

In short: Cost cuts and low debt support margins, while spending on clearing and new products raises the expense base.

Bull · 1

  • Expense savings target raised to 12% and 14%

    The realignment was first pitched as an 8% to 10% expense cut; after cutting roughly a fifth of the workforce, management now expects $100 million to $120 million of annualized savings, money it intends to redirect into new products.

    Tone shiftQ3 FY2025 → Q1 FY2026
Bear · 2

  • Clearing build-out lifts capital spending guidance

    Management raised capital spending guidance by about $25 million to build Cboe Clear U.S. and to buy hardware before prices rise, which adds depreciation and reduces the cash left for buybacks.

    Q2 FY2026 call

  • Notes due 2027 will absorb cash

    Senior unsecured notes maturing in 2027 are expected to be repaid from cash on hand, which competes directly with repurchases and with the investment needed for event contracts and clearing.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-20

Market Position

In short: Licensed index products are hard to copy, but revenue is concentrated in a few customers and one license.

Bull · 1

  • Securities status suits a registered exchange

    Cboe argues that event contracts on indexes and company measures are securities, a position that, if regulators adopt it, would direct that business to registered exchanges such as Cboe rather than to platforms outside SEC oversight.

    Q2 FY2026 call
Bear · 1

  • Ten customers supply most of revenue

    The largest customers provide well over half of revenue and a handful of clearing members handle most options fees, so one large market maker moving its flow elsewhere would be felt directly in results.

    10-K, filed 2026-02-20