Ball Corporation
Analysis
Ball has run out of room to grow. It is sold out for the year, so the next leg of volume comes from new plants, and those plants cost money now while the cans they make only arrive in 2027.How much of BALL's 2027 volume growth depends on Millersburg?
- Ball is sold out, so growth now comes from building, not selling.
Ball grew faster than its own 2% to 3% volume target last year, and management calls the market “healthily tight.” It is sold out for 2026 with more than 90% contracted for 2027, so growth now depends on new steel in Oregon.
- The new capacity costs money before it earns any.
Millersburg is making cans, but it is a single line, and its full value only arrives in 2027. North America already shows the strain: volumes grew in Q2 FY2026 while its profit fell 2.4%, and $35 million of start-up costs land this year.How much would BALL's North America profit have risen without those start-up costs?
- The offset is profit per can, not more cans.
The $500 million cost programme came in early, and profit per can is up more than 30% since 2019. Europe is where it earns the least per can and has the most empty space, so its volume grows faster than its profit until Benepack fills up.How does BALL's profit per can in Europe compare with North America?
- Committed customer volumesLong-term customer contracts cover most of the capacity Ball is adding, which means new plants start up with buyers already committed.
- Capacity additions in tight marketsNew plants in Oregon and Europe should relieve the capacity limits that currently cap how much demand Ball can actually serve.
- Metal cost pass-throughContracts pass aluminum and other input costs to customers, so commodity swings change revenue more than they change profit.
- Capacity limits in North AmericaBall cannot fill all the orders it has in North America until new capacity starts, so growth in its largest market stays low.
- Margin pressure from metal costsPass-through metal costs raise revenue without lifting profit, so reported margins look weaker even when the underlying business holds.
- Moderating share repurchasesBuybacks are slowing as the company turns to debt reduction, so per-share growth depends more on earnings than on a shrinking share count.
| Politician | Transaction | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$50K | Aug 21 | Oct 8 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$50K | Jul 20 | Sep 22 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Sale | ≥$50K | Mar 17 | May 13 |
Donald Trump Republican · Executive | Purchase | ≥$50K | Feb 10 | May 13 |
Jefferson Shreve Republican · House · IN-6 | Sale | ≥$15K | May 8 | Jun 22 |
Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant
How Ball turned $13.2B of revenue into $1.4B of operating income.
| Revenue | ||
|---|---|---|
| Metal Beverage Packaging Americas and Asia | $6.3B | ▲ 11.87% YoY |
| Metal Beverage Packaging Europe | $4.0B | ▲ 14.92% YoY |
| Metal Food and Household Products Packaging Americas | $2.2B | ▲ 10.81% YoY |
| Total revenue | $13.2B | |
| Gross profit | $2.6B | 19.6% |
| Operating income | $1.4B | 10.9% |