Ameren Corporation

AEE · NYSE · USD

Analysis

Last 4 earnings calls · through Q2 FY2026

Ameren spent the past year turning data center interest into signed contracts: 2.8 gigawatts of agreements, with Google and Amazon now breaking ground. The sales start in late 2027, but the poles, plants and stock sales that pay for them land now. How much of Ameren's capex is aimed at serving data centers?

  • Data center interest turned into signed contracts and groundbreakings.

    Signed agreements reached 2.8 gigawatts as Google and Amazon announced their Missouri projects and broke ground. Sales begin in late 2027, so what Ameren is booking today is spending, not the demand it is building for. How much of the 4 gigawatts under study has reached a signed agreement?

  • Ameren spends for years before it earns anything back.

    Management says most of the gap between rate base growth and earnings growth is the stock it sells to fund the build: $4 billion through 2030. The share count keeps climbing, so the build costs owners a slice of the company each year.

  • Reliability work is soaking up this year's earnings growth.

    Both Q1 and Q2 FY2026 named higher tree trimming and energy center maintenance as the cost offsetting earnings, and management held 2026 guidance steady rather than raising it. Spending on reliability now pushes the payoff out. How much of the higher tree trimming and maintenance spending repeats next year?

Bullish
  • Contracted data center load
    Signed electric service agreements with hyperscalers give Ameren contracted demand that exceeds the load already baked into its five-year sales forecast.
  • Rising rate base investment
    Management keeps enlarging the capital plan as projects qualify, and for a regulated utility the resulting rate base is what produces earnings growth.
  • Constructive regulation
    Missouri approved a large load tariff and Illinois regulators have settled recent rate cases, letting Ameren recover spending inside known frameworks.
Bearish
  • Share issuance and debt funding
    The investment plan is paid for partly with new shares and borrowings, so per-share profit grows more slowly than the asset base it comes from.
  • Cash flow below capital spending
    Ameren spends more on construction than its operations generate, leaving the plan dependent on capital markets and on credit ratings holding up.
  • Unbuilt data center projects
    The forecast sales arrive only after customers secure sites, break ground, and finish construction, and Ameren serves no data center load today.
PoliticiansInstitutionsInsiders
PoliticianTransactionAmountTradedFiled
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$15KMar 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$1KJan 23May 13
Donald Trump
Republican · Executive
Purchase≥$100KJan 6May 13
Julie Johnson
Democratic · House · TX-32
Purchase≥$1KSep 23Aug 5
Julie Johnson
Democratic · House · TX-32
Sale≥$1KSep 23Aug 5

Congressional trading data provided by QuiverQuant

Product segmentsGeography
FY2025 · USD

How Ameren turned $8.8B of revenue into $2.0B of operating income.

Revenue
Electricity$7.7B▲ 17.25% YoY
Natural Gas$1.1B▲ 4.43% YoY
Total revenue$8.8B
Gross profit$2.6B29.6%
Operating income$2.0B23.0%